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[Phys-l] considering *all* the plausible hypotheses



Hi --

Here is some good news:

As you know, when planning a scientific experiment or anything else,
you should consider *all* the plausible scenarios. If you toss a coin,
you should consider both possible outcomes, heads and tails. If you
are planning a picnic, you should consider the possibility that there
will be clear skies, the possibility that it will rain, and so on.

I recently got word from the folks who run the International Science
and Engineering Fair (ISEF) that they realize that some of their
documents have been open to misinterpretation on this point. They
have started going through their rules and supporting documents to
change "hypothesis" (singular) to /hypotheses/ (plural) in some
places, and to substitute words such as /outcomes/ and /scenarios/
in other places.

This process is not complete, but it is moving in the right direction.

Science is not a guessing game. During the planning stage, before
the data is available, it is madness to pretend to predict "the"
outcome (singular). If the outcome of a so-called experiment is
entirely predictable, then it's not an experiment at all, but rather
merely some kind of construction project. In contrast, *after* the
data has been collected, *then* we can predict that similar measurements
will produce similar results -- but even then we should at least
/consider/ the possibility that the prediction could go awry.

For more on this, see
http://www.av8n.com/physics/scientific-methods.htm
especially
http://www.av8n.com/physics/scientific-methods.htm#sec-poster

Please help spread the word: Always consider *all* the plausible hypotheses.