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On Apr 6, 2020, at 6:05 PM, John Denker via Phys-l <phys-l@mail.phys-l.org> wrote:
On 4/6/20 5:53 PM, Albert J. Mallinckrodt wrote:
I believe the U.S. (read largely, “New York”) still has a chance to
bring it in at 30,000 to 40,000 deaths.
Sure, the physics says it's possible.
One of the IHME models says it's possible.
You don't need to convince me.
I was expressing a political judgment, not a physics calculation.
There's a set of steps that need to be implemented to achieve the
desired result. So far none of them have been implemented properly
on a national scale. Costly and crude approximations have been
implemented in a few jurisdictions, but unless they can pull up
the drawbridge and keep everybody else out, or unless everybody
else learns the lesson before it's too late, I don't see how they
can hold out. It's like trying to defend one tree in a forest
fire. It's possible, but difficult, expensive, and exhausting.
The only reasonable policy objective is to put out the whole
fire, all at once, nationwide. I just don't see now that can
happen politically. You would need about ten different people
to have a road-to-Damascus moment all at once, REAL SOON.
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