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Re: [Phys-L] Ex: Re: It's this simple ... isn't it?

My judgment is based on reported data on daily deaths that suggests that we have been at R < 1 in California for at least two weeks. New York is a more difficult proposition, but there are some good data driven reasons to think it may be true there as well.

More soon!

John Mallinckrodt
Cal Poly Pomona

On Apr 6, 2020, at 6:05 PM, John Denker via Phys-l <> wrote:

On 4/6/20 5:53 PM, Albert J. Mallinckrodt wrote:

I believe the U.S. (read largely, “New York”) still has a chance to
bring it in at 30,000 to 40,000 deaths.

Sure, the physics says it's possible.
One of the IHME models says it's possible.
You don't need to convince me.

I was expressing a political judgment, not a physics calculation.

There's a set of steps that need to be implemented to achieve the
desired result. So far none of them have been implemented properly
on a national scale. Costly and crude approximations have been
implemented in a few jurisdictions, but unless they can pull up
the drawbridge and keep everybody else out, or unless everybody
else learns the lesson before it's too late, I don't see how they
can hold out. It's like trying to defend one tree in a forest
fire. It's possible, but difficult, expensive, and exhausting.

The only reasonable policy objective is to put out the whole
fire, all at once, nationwide. I just don't see now that can
happen politically. You would need about ten different people
to have a road-to-Damascus moment all at once, REAL SOON.
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