Re: [Phys-L] It's this simple ... isn't it?

[brian whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>]

On 4/6/2020 4:45 PM, Albert J. Mallinckrodt wrote:
> I’ve been “publishing” a lot of “papers” on my Facebook page (!) based on a couple of COVID-19 spreadsheet models I’ve developed and refined.  But the bottom line for me is REALLY simple and, I think, still needs to be FAR more widely understood.
>
> I wonder if anybody here has any _substantial_ disagreements?
>
> ____
>
> In the absence of a vaccine, there are only two ways to end the explosive and relentless exponential increase in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths and see a "peak" of any kind in any given local outbreak of COVID-19:
>
> 1) Institute sufficient social distancing to bring the basic reproduction number, R, under 1, in which case we get reversed or negative growth
>
> or
>
> 2) wait until herd immunity kicks in because virtually EVERYBODY has been infected.
>
> In the first case you get 1) a peak in daily new infections almost immediately, 2) a peak in daily deaths about 20 days later, and 3) a final death toll that is something like 20 to 100 times the number of deaths on the peak day.
>
> In the second case, you get 1) a peak in new infections much later (maybe 10 to 15 doubling times down the road from the first 10 deaths), 2) a collapsed hospital system, and 3) a total death toll of something like 2 to 10% of the entire local population (based on both the mortality of the disease and on the collateral damage from the collapse of the hospital system.)
>
> So the choice is ours. Are we going to wear our masks and stay the f**k at home ... or not?
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Whereas the titular head of this great country orders a million 
treatments/doses/pills?? of an anti-malarial which has provided useful 
results for Lupus Erythematosus and Rheumatoid Arthritis sufferers - in 
the form of Plaquenil (hydroxychloroquine) tabs, though this therapy has 
has little more factual foundation for CV-19 than Ivermectin (indicated 
for horse worms & parasites ~ and sadly, I am not making this up!)
  True that in combination with other approved drugs Plaquenil is being 
trialed by WHO and elsewhere.

In answer to John M's challenge to stay home .. or what? may I offer a 
recent brain wave of mine which does not even have the virtue of novelty 
- and which is apparently being trialed at Johns Hopkins as I write: 
spinning out the serum of recovered patients which is thought to have 
antibodies for CV-19 as a palliative treatment (I say palliative because 
this approach which was developed in the 1890s is thought to offer only 
evanescent protection.)
What red-blooded physics teacher could not come by the use of a serum 
centrifuge for this purpose?   [I think I am joking, but possibly not!]

 Oh wait: I read today: a consortium of pharma industry companies are 
also doing a joint serum-style  drug...  I'll be hearing next that N95s 
and goggles, gloves and eye shields are going to be mass-produced in the 
USA. I know it can be done - it was done in ..er.. 1942 I think


Brian W**