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In the absence of a vaccine, there are only two ways to end the
explosive and relentless exponential increase in infections,
hospitalizations, and deaths and see a "peak" of any kind in any
given local outbreak of COVID-19:
1) Institute sufficient social distancing to bring the basic
reproduction number, R, under 1, in which case we get reversed or
negative growth
or
2) wait until herd immunity kicks in because virtually EVERYBODY has
been infected.
In the first case you get 1) a peak in daily new infections almost
immediately, 2) a peak in daily deaths about 20 days later, and 3) a
final death toll that is something like 20 to 100 times the number of
deaths on the peak day.
In the second case, you get 1) a peak in new infections much later
(maybe 10 to 15 doubling times down the road from the first 10
deaths), 2) a collapsed hospital system, and 3) a total death toll of
something like 2 to 10% of the entire local population (based on both
the mortality of the disease and on the collateral damage from the
collapse of the hospital system.)
So the choice is ours. Are we going to wear our masks and stay the
f**k at home ... or not?