Re: [Phys-l] dealing with the media +- evolution

[Hugh Haskell <hhaskell@mindspring.com>]

At 15:19  -0500 4/6/08, cliff parker wrote:

> Just because I walk into my classroom at school and inhale doesn't mean
> there will be any oxygen in that breath.  Maybe all of the oxygen will have
> randomly  moved to the top of the room.  Again within your last post you
> sighted several reasons why (Pu-??? = nuclear weapons) is really not
> conjecture as it applies to Iran.  It's like arguing about what the meaning
> of is, is.  The larger point is why hasn't the media told us the facts.
> They pretend that your statement above -  "Just because a nation is using
> nuclear power doesn't mean that they are planning on using the resulting
> plutonium to build nuclear weapons." should really be taken seriously when
> considering Iran.  You don't even believe that.  Shouldn't they be making at
> least a bit of an effort to educate the people about the fact that Uranium
> is really, really hard to process where as Pu is not.  And it is obvious to
> anyone who knows that, that the reason for nuclear power production in Iran
> has nothing to do with electricity?

I rather think that the probabilities of breathing oxygen are 
somewhat different from those of Iran wanting nukes. I agree that the 
probability of Iran not wanting weapons is low, but your breathing 
example has a probability many orders of magnitude different from 
Iranian nukes. I am not trying to convince anyone that Iran doesn't 
want nukes. They probably do. But not "probably." We do not have the 
firm evidence that you proclaim, and so what we are asserting is 
speculative, even if it is unlikely to be wrong.

Having access to plutonium does not guarantee an intention to put it 
to use in weapons, even if it does create that danger. Having uranium 
enrichment does not guarantee and intention to create weapons-grade 
uranium, even if it does enable that possibility. There are plenty of 
examples of countries with access to either or both who have not 
built nuclear weapons. The Iranians may never obtain nuclear weapons 
either because they choose not to, or because the technical problems 
may prove daunting and they cannot do so. I agree that this 
probability is low, but it is not zero, or anywhere as near to zero 
as you seem to believe. And since we are both speaking from a vast 
storehouse of ignorance, it seems to me pointless to continue the 
discussion.

Hugh
--

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Hugh Haskell
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<mailto:hhaskell@mindspring.com>

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