Re: [Phys-L] Finally ... normalized (by population) data, and Andorra

[brian whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>]

On 4/12/2020 3:47 PM, bernard cleyet wrote:
> /snip/
> http://cleyet.org/covid-19/Europe/Andorra/   

> Finally!    I’ve plotted cases wherein the better fit is logistic —considerably better than a simple exponential.  (Thanks to Brian W.)  Deaths next.
It may be I am a prisoner of my own devise; but comparing bc's Andorra 
scatter plot of cases per day using the raw rate data suffers from the 
inevitable noise.
Can YOU define the peak case rate day from this plot?

How much better to derive cases per day using the logistic parameters 
with which he modeled the cumulative cases, like this:

https://imgur.com/BR1US5H

>   Intuitively, I think the proportion of cases to total infections is higher in Andorra than nearly all the other countries.  However, this is belied by the high death rate.  29/638 ~= 4.5%.
I have been preoccupied by comparing Deaths/Reported Cases for which the 
national ratio is ~ 3.5% compared with the Oklahoma ratio of 7%+ Not 
quite the same ratio that bc mentioned which I think nods to the  
apprehension that Reported Cases is a  captive to the test supply position.

Brian W