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Re: [Phys-L] Finally ... normalized (by population) data, and Andorra

On 4/12/2020 3:47 PM, bernard cleyet wrote:

Finally! I’ve plotted cases wherein the better fit is logistic —considerably better than a simple exponential. (Thanks to Brian W.) Deaths next.
It may be I am a prisoner of my own devise; but comparing bc's Andorra scatter plot of cases per day using the raw rate data suffers from the inevitable noise.
Can YOU define the peak case rate day from this plot?

How much better to derive cases per day using the logistic parameters with which he modeled the cumulative cases, like this:

Intuitively, I think the proportion of cases to total infections is higher in Andorra than nearly all the other countries. However, this is belied by the high death rate. 29/638 ~= 4.5%.

I have been preoccupied by comparing Deaths/Reported Cases for which the national ratio is ~ 3.5% compared with the Oklahoma ratio of 7%+ Not quite the same ratio that bc mentioned which I think nods to the  apprehension that Reported Cases is a  captive to the test supply position.

Brian W