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They have refused to put forth a model. Fools rush in where
angels fear to tread.
On 2020/Apr/01, at 22:56, John Denker via Phys-l <phys-l@mail.phys-l.org> wrote:
Hi Folks --
Modeling the pandemic is either really easy or really hard.
-- The easy part is this: Any model tells you that the outcome
is exquisitely sensitive to public policy aka interventions
aka suppression efforts aka mitigation strategies.
-- Obtaining any more-quantitative predictions is therefore
next to impossible.
-- Actually it's even worse than that. Even if you knew
what decisions would be made, there would still be multiple
hurdles to overcome, as laid out in this article from our
friends at FiveThirtyEight:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/
They have refused to put forth a model. Fools rush in where
angels fear to tread.