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Re: [Phys-L] covid modeling

do some model have winter/summer info?

El mar., 31 mar. 2020 a las 4:41, John Denker via Phys-l (<>) escribió:

I put up some of my models of the covid outbreak:

Perhaps the most interesting point I'd like to make is
that the data on "confirmed" cases is limited by the
availability of testing or the lack thereof. You can
analyze it all you want and it will just tell you about
the testing, not about the actual disease.

HOWEVER, the data on /deaths/ is more meaningful. You
can work backwards from that, making some assumptions
about the latency and the case fatality rate, and then
infer the /actual/ number of cases. It exceeds the
number of "confirmed" cases by more than an order of

It's too late to prevent some seriously bad things
from happening.
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Diego Saravia