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Re: [Phys-L] covid modeling


This preprint that was put out last week may be of interest:

"The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to effectively spread globally, including in
warm and humid climates, suggests that seasonality cannot be considered a
key modulating factor of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility."

On Tue, Mar 31, 2020 at 9:32 AM Diego Saravia via Phys-l <> wrote:

do some model have winter/summer info?

El mar., 31 mar. 2020 a las 4:41, John Denker via Phys-l (<>) escribió:

I put up some of my models of the covid outbreak:

Perhaps the most interesting point I'd like to make is
that the data on "confirmed" cases is limited by the
availability of testing or the lack thereof. You can
analyze it all you want and it will just tell you about
the testing, not about the actual disease.

HOWEVER, the data on /deaths/ is more meaningful. You
can work backwards from that, making some assumptions
about the latency and the case fatality rate, and then
infer the /actual/ number of cases. It exceeds the
number of "confirmed" cases by more than an order of

It's too late to prevent some seriously bad things
from happening.
Forum for Physics Educators

Diego Saravia
Forum for Physics Educators