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Re: [Phys-L] covid modeling, forgetting our immune systems

John Denker,

That is an impressive piece of work. I mean really impressive. Wishing I had such analytical and statistical competence.

But, let’s not let such impressive work take our minds and bodies off simple things, such as optimizing our immune systems, which are potentially our best defense against thousands/hundreds of viruses.

Every day here in Greenbelt Maryland I witness dozen(s) of persons who are grossly neglecting their immune systems. I can tell at a glance.

No wonder such neglect, since virtually none of the info coming to us suggests that we should optimize our immune systems at this critical time.

But we are in an economic bind. If nearly all of us were to be optimizing our immune systems we would be in for an even more serious economic downturn, since nearly everybody would be becoming healthier.

Our economy is largely based upon services for illnesses, fear of illnesses and purchase of insurance to mitigate that fear.

Also, over 90% of our food is damaging to health. So food and food-related industries would suffer mightily if, in a quest for immune system optimization, nearly all of us were to abandon such foods.

Now I better understand why the informers are waiting for such as I to bring immune system awareness to the forefront.

Bill Norwood
- Well read medically.
- Sporting a strong immune system long-term

Sent from my iPhone

On Mar 31, 2020, at 3:41 AM, John Denker via Phys-l <> wrote:

I put up some of my models of the covid outbreak:

Perhaps the most interesting point I'd like to make is
that the data on "confirmed" cases is limited by the
availability of testing or the lack thereof. You can
analyze it all you want and it will just tell you about
the testing, not about the actual disease.

HOWEVER, the data on /deaths/ is more meaningful. You
can work backwards from that, making some assumptions
about the latency and the case fatality rate, and then
infer the /actual/ number of cases. It exceeds the
number of "confirmed" cases by more than an order of

It's too late to prevent some seriously bad things
from happening.
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