Re: [Phys-L] [External] corvid-19 graphed

[brian whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>]

On 3/18/2020 12:34 PM, bernard cleyet via Phys-l wrote:
> > On 2020/Mar/18, at 06:09, LaMontagne, Bob via Phys-l <phys-l@mail.phys-l.org> wrote:
> >
> > Bernard,
> >
> > Non-China data is fascinating - practically exponential. Please keep providing your graphs.
> >
> > Stay well -
> >
> > Bob at PC
> > _________
>
> Much more difficult now.  WHO has broken up reporting by regions instead of the two (China and non China).
>
>
> Global;  Western Pac.; European; SE Asia; E. Mediterranean; Americas; African.  I’ll try a column pair for each.
>
> I suspect deviations from “pure” exp. indicate intervention(s).  OTOH, there’s the CLT.
>
>
> bc   work cut out.
> _______________________________________________
The International  objective presently is to maintain the
exponential growth but on a LONGER doubling time by isolation measures.
When a large proportion of a susceptible population is infected,
you would expect the curve to flatten to a logistic curve.
Effective treatments (hard to develop for viruses) and later
prophylactics like vaccines will provide deviations from
a pure exponential.

Brian W