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Re: [Phys-L] [External] corvid-19 graphed

On 3/18/2020 12:34 PM, bernard cleyet via Phys-l wrote:

On 2020/Mar/18, at 06:09, LaMontagne, Bob via Phys-l <> wrote:


Non-China data is fascinating - practically exponential. Please keep providing your graphs.

Stay well -

Bob at PC

Much more difficult now. WHO has broken up reporting by regions instead of the two (China and non China).

Global; Western Pac.; European; SE Asia; E. Mediterranean; Americas; African. I’ll try a column pair for each.

I suspect deviations from “pure” exp. indicate intervention(s). OTOH, there’s the CLT.

bc work cut out.
The International  objective presently is to maintain the
exponential growth but on a LONGER doubling time by isolation measures.
When a large proportion of a susceptible population is infected,
you would expect the curve to flatten to a logistic curve.
Effective treatments (hard to develop for viruses) and later
prophylactics like vaccines will provide deviations from
a pure exponential.

Brian W