Suppose there are presently 200 confirmed cases of Covid-19
Suppose this number doubles every three days.
Say that 20% of the US population has natural immunity.
How long to ripple though the susceptible population:
??why, 200 X 2^(3days) = 0.8 x 327 million, of course!
20.31 x 3 days = 61 days plus 14 days recovery time
for the last wave - grand total 75 days and June 1
sees us home and dry.
Then there's the mortality rate - let's call it just 1%
??not the 3% that people are suggesting.
Hmmmm....2.6 million deaths. So not just a shortage of
test strips - but a shortage of coffins and crematoria slots!
And that demonstrates the features of an exponential series
the weakness of extrapolating time series on current data!