Re: [Phys-L] microwave ovens/ vaccines

["Forinash III, Kyle" <kforinas@ius.edu>]

Bill I do care very much about ‘my youngest descendants’ and I am very sorry for your personal experiences connected to autism, whatever they may be. 

However. Before the MMR vaccine was introduced in 1971 there were around 500 deaths per year from Measles, around 50 deaths a year from Mumps and 20 or so deaths per year from Rubella in the US alone. After the vaccine the number of deaths from these diseases dropped to less than 1 per year. These are DEATHS; the number suffering from these diseases was more than 2000 times the death rate. These are absolute figures; the total population just about doubled in this time frame so the percentage change is even more impressive. Vaccines save lives, and not just a few. I’m all for stopping vaccination when and if these diseases ever disappear but, based on today’s news (http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/27/health/harvard-university-mumps-outbreak/index.html), they have not. 

The recent increase in Autism diagnosis has occurred since around 2000 (mainly due to better diagnosis) but the current vaccine has been in use since 1971. Autism affects males at a rate 4.5 times that of females. Twin studies show there is a genetic component to autism. It occurs at about the same rate in all racial, ethnic and socioeconomic groups around the world. It occurs at about the same time in life (vaccinated or not). These factors do not add up to a vaccine causing autism. Correlation does not prove causation. 

I do not have the resources to do my own scientific study on the connection between autism and vaccines. This would require taking national data over decades from millions of people. I do not have time to get a PhD in immunology. So who should I trust? Certainly not the vaccine manufactures. Should we go with anecdotal evidence? I don’t think so. Fortunately the CDC (funded by the government, not the vaccine industry) has done my homework for me. A team of experts, far more qualified than I, have looked at the evidence and said "To date, the studies continue to show that vaccines are not associated with ASD.”  Should we keep looking? Sure I’m all for that! Are there contrarian views who have done studies? Yes, and this is true about nearly every topic you can mention. Does that mean we get to pick and choose who we want to believe? I think we go with the best available information and I’m going to bet the CDC has the best information. Yes they could end up being wrong and I’ll be the first to change my mind if they come up with different data. Yes, we should find the cause of autism, whatever it is. Should we stop vaccinating? I sincerely hope not, at lease not yet, for the sake of my grand kids and everyone else’s. 

http://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/autism/topics.html 

kyle

> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> Message: 1
> Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2016 17:36:12 +0000
> From: "Forinash III, Kyle" <kforinas@ius.edu>
> To: "phys-l@www.phys-l.org" <phys-l@www.phys-l.org>
> Subject: Re: [Phys-L] microwave ovens
> Message-ID: <30FB63AE-A03E-4798-93DA-7E486C424C68@ius.edu>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
>
> Hi
>
> Rob Brotherton in his book ?Suspicious Minds; why we believe conspiracy theories? (http://www.amazon.com/Suspicious-Minds-Believe-Conspiracy-Theories/dp/1472915615/ref=sr_1_9?ie=UTF8&qid=1461690107&sr=8-9&keywords=conspiracy+theory+books) makes the case that some people are more susceptible to conspiracies than others and that we all are susceptible to some degree. The tendency is that if you believe that vaccines cause autism you also believe Kennedy was killed by some mysterious cabal, microwaves cause cancer, fluorine is bad, etc. Brotherton argues these people aren?t stupid, they can give very involved, complex, logical arguments for their beliefs. But they often commit the fallacy (among others) that lack of evidence proves that something is being hidden or covered up. It is very hard to dispel that kind of thinking. The book is a fun read; I recommend it as giving insight into how conspiracists think.
>
> As for microwaves and cell phones causing cancer; if this were true, there would have been a very dramatic and sudden increase in cancers following the widespread introduction of these devices. Historical cancer rates are available from the CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm and do not show a sudden increase (unless of course, maybe the CDC is covering up something ?.!). You CAN see a distinct increase in lung cancer in men in the 40s following the widespread increase in smoking in the 20s and 30s, followed by a parallel increase of lung cancer among women two decades later as it became more acceptable for women to smoke. Most other cancer rates have remained approximately constant since the 30s with the exception of stomach cancer which has dropped significantly since the 40s, most likely due to better diets (fresh fruits and vegetables were only available seasonally until we started importing them year round).
>
> kyle
>
>
>
>
> ------------------------------
>
> Message: 2
> Date: Tue, 26 Apr 2016 13:57:56 -0400
> From: Bill Norwood <bnorwood111@gmail.com>
> To: Phys-L@phys-l.org
> Subject: Re: [Phys-L] microwave ovens
> Message-ID:
> 	<CAExVuJM6Nfx_muvn5=015HB7A45x6vKzUGAUuToHevkS81FXTQ@mail.gmail.com>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
>
> Kyle,
> - While what follows might sound somewhat harsh toward you, please bear in
> mind that I am acting as an advocate for our youngest members of society
> who cannot possibly speak up for themselves in a qualified way.
> - What you just wrote required just a few minutes of work, which falls far
> short of doing your homework, as I recommended, in order to really
> understand whether vaccines (and other environmental substances as well)
> might cause autism.
> - I did not claim that vaccines cause autism, but I have answered the
> question satisfactorily for myself. I merely ask others to do the same
> thing, especially if they already have small children as descendants or
> will have such in the future.
> - The investment of hundred of hours or so of work required to satisfy
> one's own need to know, might well save the half million hours that an
> unfortunate child and an unfortunate family might suffer if indeed it turns
> out that either a particular vaccine, or group of vaccines, or timing of
> vaccine use, or health of child at vaccination time, or combo of vaccine(s)
> with other environmental contaminants. indeed did cause the autism.
> - If you will indeed do your homework you will encounter both
> well-referenced research denying a connection and the tearful parents who
> observe their own children daily who noticed a remarkable correlation
> between vaccination time and autism symptoms onset time.
> - I know of some of the pain from my own family of origin as well as from
> other relatives' experiences, all of which are of course anecdotes, which
> is to say that of course I cannot prove for the cases I mention that
> vaccines did cause the autism.
> - Again, please do your homework and you will find yourself caring more
> about your youngest descendants, even if they can never be anything but
> anecdotes.
> Thanks, Bill Norwood

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 If we knew what is was we were doing, it would not be called research, would it?

 kyle forinash        
  kforinas@ius.edu
http://pages.iu.edu/~kforinas/