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[Phys-L] Re: [Political Action] The nature of the lack of proof (climate warming)



It's interesting - the subject given to this thread is quite apposite:
the global warming advocates tend to be European, or Democrat or Socialist.
The global warming debunkers tend to be American, or Republican
or Conservatives.

Evidence is not enough: I suppose if one is a part of that steeply
increasing population of skin cancer victims in Australia say,
or South America - that is a kind of evidence to which one can relate,
no matter what one's politics. But that isn't about global warming,
specially - it's only about an ozone hole.

And I sympathize with one who finds the objective evidence unconvincing:
it's still barely above noise level: and physicists in general are just not
good at
picking up signal under the noise level; they don't want statistics, and they
don't want signal-processing if they can avoid it: so it hardly matters that
I pointed to papers from every ivy league college and blue-ribbon society
in the
science biz: you will not be convinced if your leitmotif is tree-huggers
versus
solid American business: chimney scrubbers cost an awful lot of money to bet
on a hunch after all, to name one trivial manifestation....

For this and other reasons, I deliberately erased any paper citing a model
or its predictions from the list I offered.
[I know of course, that to pick signal from deep under noise it is helpful
to correlate a putative model against raw data in noise - but models are
too easy targets for the incredulous]

Brian W

At 09:15 PM 12/15/2004, "David T. Marx" <dtmarx@ILSTU.EDU> you wrote:

I know there's no shortage of literature on the topic. I have read a lot
of it.

Most of the articles involving species assume climate change is occurring
and then
match up observed changes in species with the climate change. That's not
all that
convincing. We could take each of these 1200 articles and do a critique
of each, but I
doubt the list would be interested in that pursuit here. As with a lot of
the literature on
any topic you pick, most articles shed little light on the subject, but a
small percentage
do.


On 15 Dec 2004 at 19:53, Brian Whatcott wrote:

At 07:30 PM 12/15/2004, you wrote:
on 16/12/04 7:48 AM, David T. Marx at dtmarx@ILSTU.EDU wrote:

SNIP

If anyone can point me to some physical evidence of global warming, I
would be
interested.


http://www.acia.uaf.edu/PDFs/Testimony.pdf

Brian McInnes

Google Scholar: "global warming" evidence cites:

Global warming: Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change
TR Karl, G Kukla, VN Razuvayev, MJ Changery, RG & - Cached - Cited by 23
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 18, NO. 12, doi:10.1029/91GL02900, 1991.
Global
warming: Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change. ...
Geophys. Res. Lett, 1991 - agu.org - adsabs.harvard.edu

& global temperatures of 1997 and 1998: evidence for an increase in the
rate of global warming
TR Karl, RW Knight, B Baker - Cached - Cited by 20
... 5, PAGES 719722, 2000. The record breaking global temperatures of 1997
and 1998:
Evidence for an increase in the rate of global warming? Thomas R. Karl. ...
Geophys. Res. Lett, 2000 - agu.org - agu.org

Evidence that decomposition rates of organic carbon in mineral soil do not
vary with temperature
CP Giardina, MG Ryan - Cited by 93
... 3. Kirschbaum,MUF The temperature dependence of soil organic matter
decomposition,
and the effect of global warming on soil organic C storage. Soil Biol. ...
Nature, 2000 - nature.com - adsabs.harvard.edu - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent
L Hughes - Cited by 131
Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent?
... Evidence
from long-term monitoring studies is now accumulating and suggests that the
...
Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 2000 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to
global warming
AJ Davis, LS Jenkinson, JH Lawton, B Shorrocks, S & - Cited by 101
... Graham, R. W.in Global Warming and Biological Diversity (eds Peters, RL
& ... in
encapsulation ability of Drosophila melanogaster larvae and evidence for
parasitoid ...
Nature, 1998 - nature.com - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

On modification of global warming by sulfate aerosols
JFB Mitchell, TC Johns - Cited by 91
Title: On Modification of Global Warming by Sulfate Aerosols. ... There is
increasing
evidence that the response of climate to increasing greenhouse gases may be
...
J. Climate, 1997 - adsabs.harvard.edu

Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
M Oppenheimer - Cited by 48
... 15. Kennett, JP & Hodell, DA Evidence for relative climatic
stability of
Antarctica during the early Pliocene: a marine perspective. ...
Nature, 1998 - nature.com

Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: a response to
global warming
JL Brown, SH Li, N Bhagabati - Cited by 42
... temperature has risen 0.5°C in the 20th century (1). Global warming may
be ... Evidence
of such effects is still rare and circumstantial, but, using
correlation ...
Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA, 1999 - pubmedcentral.nih.gov - pnas.org -
dx.doi.org - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov - all 5 versions »

Special Feature Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce
rapid climate change?
DL Hartmann, JM Wallace, V Limpasuvan, DWJ & - Cited by 57
... of Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of the status of global warming,
which reported
that ... We show evidence that the tropospheric annular mode is associated
with ...
Proc Natl Acad Sci US A, 2000 - pubmedcentral.nih.gov - pnas.org -
dx.doi.org - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov - all 5 versions »

[PDF] How dry is the tropical free troposphere? Implications for global
warming theory
RW Spencer, WD Braswell - View as HTML - Cited by 37
... humidity fluctuations at low humidities makes the newer satellite
evidence of
extreme aridity of particular importance to global warming predictions from
...
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 1997 - earthscape.org


Global warming: Evidence from satellite observations.
C Prabhakara, R Iacovazzi, JM Yoo, G Dalu - Cached - Cited by 4
... 27, NO. 21, PAGES 35173520, 2000. Global warming: Evidence from
satellite observations.
C. Prabhakara Jr. Raytheon ITSS, Lanham, Maryland. JM Yoo. ...
Geophys Res Lett, 2000 - agu.org - agu.org - adsabs.harvard.edu


Flexible Functional Forms and Global Curvature Conditions
WE Diewert, TJ Wales, MP Page - Cached - Cited by 157
... Cited by (explanations): Guenter Lang, 1999. "Global Warming and German
Agriculture ...
"Innovations, Wages and Demand for Heterogeneous Labour: New Evidence from
a ...
Econometrica, 1987 - ideas.repec.org - papers.ssrn.com - palm.nber.org -
nber.org - all 6 versions »

[PDF] & ocean migrations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka): long-term
consequences of global warming
DW Welch, Y Ishida, K Nagasawa - Cited by 34
... consequences of global warming. 1. ... The first evidence for strong
thermal limits was
observed during a spring 1990 survey of Pacific salmon distributions in the
...
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. April, 1998 -
article.pubs.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca - article.pubs.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca

Fossil plants and global warming at the TriassicJurassic boundary
JC McElwain, DJ Beerling, FI Woodward - Cited by 29
... Fossil Plants and Global Warming at the Triassic-Jurassic Boundary. ...
Paleobotanical
evidence indicates a fourfold increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide ...
Science, 1999 - dx.doi.org - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


PDF] Evidence for warming and thawing of discontinuous permafrost in Alaska
TE Osterkamp, VE Romanovsky - Cited by 42
Page 1. Evidence for Warming and Thawing of Discontinuous Permafrost in
Alaska.
TE Osterkamp* and VE Romanovsky. Geophysical Institute ...
Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 1999 - doi.wiley.com

New evidence for subtropical warming during the late Paleocene thermal
maximum: Stable isotopes from &
DJ Thomas, TJ Bralower, JC Zachos - Cached - Cited by 12
... The new evidence for subtropical SST warming supports a greenhouse
mechanism
for global warming involving elevated atmospheric CO 2 levels. ...
Paleoceanography, 1999 - agu.org - adsabs.harvard.edu


Implications for global warming of intercycle solar irradiance variations
ME Schlesinger, N Ramankutty - Cited by 17
... Code: 1992Natur.360..330S Abstract The implications of solar irradiance
variations
on global warming are explored. Strong circumstantial evidence is
provided ...
Nature, 1992 - adsabs.harvard.edu

[PDF] The potential for feedback effects induced by global warming on
emissions of nitrous oxide by soils
KA Smith& - Cited by 19
... underestimated. Direct evidence of a positive feedback of global
warming on
N 2 O emissions comes from studies of air in ice cores. One ...
Global Change Biology, 1997 - blackwell-synergy.com - ingenta.com

The observed global warming record: What does it tell us
TML Wigley, PD Jones, SCB Raper - Cited by 24
... Natural Causes of Global Warming Because the climate system varies
naturally, one ...
For solar influences, there is strong evidence of significant low-frequency
...
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 1997 - pubmedcentral.nih.gov - dx.doi.org -
pnas.org - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

[PDF] Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to global
warming
PJ Kushner, IM Held, TL Delworth - View as HTML - Cited by 22
... circulation model (GCM) in a series of transient global- warming
scenario
integrations. ... levels, equatorward of 50 S, there is also evidence of an
...
J. Climate, 2001 - gfdl.gov - gfdl.gov - adsabs.harvard.edu

...and another 1200 cites.


Brian Whatcott Altus OK Eureka!





Brian Whatcott Altus OK Eureka!