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In his PHYSOC post of 10 Dec 2004 titled "National Commission on
Energy Policy Report," Ernie Behringer:
(a) alerted readers to the existence of a report by the National
Commission on Energy Policy [NCEP] "Ending the Energy Stalemate: A
Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America's Energy Challenges" with
supporting documentation [NCEP (2004a,b,c)];
(b) wrote: "A consensus strategy developed by a bipartisan group is
bound to make everyone (un)happy. ;-)"
Among those made unhappy :-( is Al Bartlett (2004a), who wrote
[bracketed by lines "BBBBBBBBBBB. . . ."; my CAPS}:
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
The report summary is yet another example of "The Silent Lie" . .
.[Bartlett (2004b). . . POPULATION GROWTH IN THE US IS THE PRINCIPAL
SOURCE OF THE ENERGY PROBLEM, YET IN THE SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE
COMMISSION, THERE IS NO MENTION OF ADDRESSING POPULATION GROWTH. The
courses of action recommended in the report are all good, but it
seems improbable that, even if fully implemented, they could offset
the growing demand that results from population growth in the US.
Even more ironic is the fact, proven over and over throughout modern
history, that solving the problems will just encourage more
population growth. See Ken Boulding's (1971) Three Theorems on
Population Growth [quoted in Bartlett (2004b)].
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
Boulding's Three Theorems on Population Growth are:
THE DISMAL THEOREM: If the only ultimate check on the growth of
populations is misery, then the population will grow until it is
miserable enough to stop its growth.
THE UTTERLY DISMAL THEOREM: Any technical improvement can only
relieve misery for a while, for so long as misery is the only check
on population, the [technical] improvement will enable the population
to grow, and will soon enable more people to live in misery than
before. The final result of [technical] improvements, therefore, is
to increase the equilibrium population, which is to increase the sum
total of human misery.
THE MODERATELY CHEERFUL FORM OF THE DISMAL THEOREM: If something
else, other than misery and starvation, can be found which will keep
a prosperous population in check, the population does not have to
grow until it is miserable or starves; it can be stably prosperous.
The NCEP is composed of "a bipartisan group of top energy experts
from industry, government, labor, academia, and environmental and
consumer groups" [see p. 4-5 of NCEP (2004c)] and is co-chaired by
John Holdren <http://ksgfaculty.harvard.edu/john_holdren> (Professor
of Environmental Policy at Harvard), William Reilly (former
Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), and John
Rowe (CEO, Exelon Corporation).
This group seems not to subscribe to Boulding's Three Theorems on
Population Growth. On page 7 of NCEP (2004c) they write (my CAPS):
". . .the Commission recognizes that CONTINUED TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES
ARE ESSENTIAL TO ENSURE THAT CLEAN, SECURE, AND AFFORDABLE ENERGY
WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE QUANTITIES REQUIRED TO *SUSTAIN LONG-TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH* FOR THE UNITED STATES AND THE WORLD. In Chapter VI,
the Commission therefore recommends that the federal government
promote technology innovation in both the public and private sectors
by SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDING AND REFOCUSING FEDERAL ENERGY RESEARCH AND
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS [emphasis in the original]."
Regarding "sustainable growth": Al Bartlett (2002) wrote: "There is
no need to attack 'sustainable growth' because 'sustainable growth'
is an oxymoron. Growth is the problem, and our lack of understanding
of the arithmetic and consequences of growth is tragic."
In his insightful review "Will the real sustainability concept please
stand up?", John Cairns (2004) wrote:
"The most popular concepts are sustainable development (usually
interpreted as growth) (The World Commission on Environment and
Development. . . [WCED (1987); more recently see Munasinghe (2001a,b)
and Munasinghe et al. (2001)]. . . and smart growth. Both concepts
emphasize growth in human artifacts as opposed to growth in
environmental literacy, intellect, wisdom, etc., which are mentioned
only in a homocentric way. My choice for the primary goal of
sustainability is staying within the carrying capacity of the planet
for humans at an optimal (quality of life) rather than a maximum
(lower quality of life) level. . .[See the ecological footprint
concept developed by Rees (e.g. Rees & Westra 2003)] . . . Staying at
or below carrying capacity requires preserving the integrity of
Earth's ecological life support system (natural capital and the
ecosystem services it provides).. . .[See Speth (2004)]. . . Since
carrying capacity does not remain constant (due to cyclic climate
change, etc.), a safety factor is mandatory."
WHAT'S ALL THIS GOT TO DO WITH EDUCATION? Paul Weisz (2004) put it
well (My CAPS):
"The educational system has become focused on how to manage, produce,
distribute, and enjoy the objects, services, and pleasures that
plentiful energy makes possible. That system has grown into ever more
disciplines and subdisciplines that serve ever more specialized
skills. Dedication to basic science - that is, to the laws of nature
that allow, control, and constrain all abilities and potentials - is
no longer emphasized. BASIC SCIENCE REMAINS LIMITED LARGELY TO
RECITATION OF FORMALISMS THAT ARE GLADLY FORGOTTEN AFTER EXAMINATION
TIME BECAUSE LITTLE EFFORT IS MADE TO RELATE THEIR BASIC AND
UNIVERSAL RELEVANCE TO SPECIALTIES, THE TOTALITY OF LIFE, AND SOCIETY.
More than ever since the beginning of the energy revolution,
knowledge of the basic nature and limits of energy is needed to
realistically determine and carry out effective policy designed to
guarantee reliable energies in the future. That could well help
ensure the survival of civilization. As H. G. Wells once remarked,
'HUMAN HISTORY MORE AND MORE BECOMES A RACE BETWEEN EDUCATION AND
CATASTROPHE.' "
"The global population is precariously large, and will become much
more so before peaking some time after 2050. Humanity overall is
improving per capita
production, health, and longevity. But it is doing so by eating up
the planet's capital, including natural resources and biological
diversity millions of years old. Homo sapiens is approaching the
limit of its food and water supply. Unlike any species before, it is
also changing the world's atmosphere and climate, lowering and
polluting water tables, shrinking forests, and spreading deserts.
Most of the stress originates directly or indirectly from a handful
of industrialized countries. Their proven formulas for prosperity are
being eagerly adopted by the rest of the world. The emulation cannot
be sustained, not with the same levels of consumption and waste. Even
if the industrialization of the developing countries is only
partially successful, the environmental aftershock will dwarf the
population explosion that preceded it."
E.O. Wilson in "Consilience: The Unity of Knowledge" (Knopf, 1998)
REFERENCES
Bartlett, A. 2002. "Re: AAPT should have public ed campaign on exp.
growth," PHYSOC post of 6 Oct 2002 11:46:54-0600; online at
<http://listserv.uark.edu/scripts/wa.exe?A2=ind0210&L=physoc&P=R222&X=64D0BE16E0EC28B1F1&Y=rrhake@earthlink.net>.
The encyclopedic URL indicates that PHYSOC is one of the few
discussion lists whose archives are closed to non subscribers :-( -
WHY ??. However, it takes only a few minutes to subscribe by
following the simple directions at
<http://listserv.uark.edu/archives/physoc.html>/ "Join or leave the
list (or change settings)" where "/" means "click on." If you're
busy, then subscribe using the "NOMAIL" option under "Miscellaneous."
Then, as a subscriber, you may access the archives and/or post
messages at any time, while receiving NO MAIL from the list!
Bartlett, A.A. 2004b. "Thoughts on Long-Term Energy Supplies:
Scientists and the Silent Lie: The world's population continues to
grow - shouldn't physicists care?" Physics Today 57(7); 53-55 (July
issue); online to subscribers at
<http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-7/p53>. See also (a) the
companion Physics Today article by Paul Weisz (2004), and (b) the
ensuing criticism of the views of Bartlett and Weiss (and counters by
those authors) in the Letters section of Physics Today 57(11): 12-20
(November issue); online to all at
<http://www.physicstoday.org/vol-57/iss-11/p12.html>. "Irrascible
professor" Mark Shapiro's appreciation of the Bartlett/Weiss articles
is at
<http://irascibleprofessor.com/comments-07-26-04.htm>.
Boulding, K. 1971. In "Collected Papers [by] Kenneth E. Boulding,"
vol. 2, Colorado Associated University Press, Boulder, CO, p. 137.
Cairns, J. 2004a. "Will the real sustainability concept please stand
up?" Ethics In Science And Environmental Politics, June, pp. 49-52;
online at
<http://www.int-res.com/articles/esep/2004/E53.pdf> (56kB). See also
Cairns (2004b) for a moving tribute to Garrett Hardin.
Munasinghe, M. 2001a. "Exploring the Linkages between Climate Change
and Sustainable Development: A Challenge for Transdisciplinary
Research," Ecology and Society 5(1); online at
<http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol5/iss1/art14/>.
Munasinghe, M. 2001b. "The sustainomics trans-disciplinary
meta-framework for making development more sustainable: applications
to energy issues," International Journal of Sustainable Development
5(1-2); abstract online at
<http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA/forum.nsf/proj/sustainomics>. For
information on the "Journal of Sustainable Development and World
Ecology" see at <http://www.parthpub.com/susdev/home.html>.
NDRC. 2004. National Resources Defense Council, "National Energy
Commission Report Paints Contrast With One-Sided Congressional, White
House Energy Policies: Effort to Seek Solutions Finds Broad
Agreement, Yields Mix of Good and Bad in the Details," online at
<http://www.nrdc.org/media/pressreleases/041208b.asp>.
NCEP. 2004a. National Commission on Energy Policy, "Bipartisan
Commission Issues Strategy to Address Long-Term U.S. Energy
Challenges: Detailed Recommendations on Oil Security, Climate Change,
Natural Gas, Nuclear Energy, and Other Key Topics the Result of 2
Years of Research and Consultation - Consensus Plan; full press
release is online at <http://www.energycommission.org/>. See also
NCEP (2004a,b). For the NDRC's mixed view of the report see NDRC
(2004).
NCEP. 2004c. "Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to
Meet America's Energy Challenges - Summary of Recommendations" at
<http://64.70.252.93/O82F4692.pdf> (628kB).
Rees W.E. & L Westra. 2003. "When consumption does violence: Can
there be sustainability and environmental justice in a
resource-limited world?" in: J. Agyeman, R.D. Bullard, & B. Evans,
eds. B (eds) "Just sustainabilities: development in an unequal
world." MIT Press, p 99-124. For a statement of Rees's thesis,
written for the Spring 2004 issue of the "Teachers Clearinghouse
Newsletter for Science and Society Education," see Roeder (2004).