It is difficult for me to imagine a terrorist trying to build a fusion
device from the ground up. It's just too tricky, and not necessary.
Therefore, I think terrorists are going to aim for a fission device,
unless they are trying to obtain an intact military fusion device.
I am not sure whether I believe a significant number of terrorists are
trying to build nuclear devices. On one hand it is dumb because it is
difficult to obtain sufficient high grade fissile material, it is
difficult to handle fissile material, and it is difficult to design a
device that will either cause a large nuclear detonation (considerable
blast damage) or to cause really large-spread nuclear contamination
(dirty bomb). Thus, a terrorist would normally get "bigger bang for the
buck" by choosing alternative methods.
On the other hand, the public is so afraid of anything nuclear that even
a fizzled terrorist attempt at nuclear detonation or nuclear
contamination or even nuclear theft, scares the heck out us... and
that's what terrorism is all about.
If a terrorist could steal a military device, just possession of it
alone could instill terror if it became known that a weapon had indeed
been stolen. What they would actually do with the stolen weapon is not
clear. Getting it to detonate as it was designed to do would be
difficult. They might be more likely to disassemble it and use the
fissile material for a fission device and/or dirty bomb.
For many years I have said that terrorists would consider nuclear
devices to be sufficient terror that some of them would certainly be
pursuing nuclear avenues. I suspect that is still true, but I wonder if
9/11 has reduced the number of terrorists that would consider a nuclear
device. The 9/11 terrorists showed us they could bring down two
skyscrapers without nuclear bombs, or even without "explosives." And
they did it in a way that makes it easy to see that such an act could be
repeated; possibly repeated often.
Also, the anthrax incidents, and even sniper incidents, are very
frightening because they could hit us anywhere, even in small town
middle America.
If I were a terrorist I don't think I would pursue nuclear devices.
However, I am not a terrorist, and I hope and presume I don't think like
a terrorist, and therefore my assumptions might be totally wrong.
Michael D. Edmiston, Ph.D.
Professor of Chemistry and Physics
Bluffton College
Bluffton, OH 45817
(419)-358-3270
edmiston@bluffton.edu