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Re: spinoffs +- competing hypotheses

At 08:35 PM 2/22/01 -0800, Bernard G. Cleyet & Nancy Ann Seese wrote:
Surely the cost, spin off ratio is very high.

I agree.

Would not a direct "attack" on
the "spin-offs" have yielded results less expensively and more rapidly?

I would certainly think so.


Then at 07:10 AM 2/23/01 -0400, Tim O'Donnell responded:

But the spin-offs may not have been researched.

That statement is vague...

-- Does that mean that some particular spin-off might not have
been produced? That is narrowly true, although misleading.

-- Does that mean that a direct attack would not have produced
results of comparable (or greater!) value, contrary to what BC
was saying? I would find this highly implausible.

Corning came up with "correl ware" as a possible heat
sheilding. It did not work out for that, but I have alot of
correl plate and bowls. I don't think Corning would have
activiely searched for a new material to make dishware.

This is a very incomplete argument. We should teach our students to always
consider a full range of competing hypotheses.

Hypothesis 1: Spend 20 billion dollars on Apollo project, resulting in
Corel ware and other spinoffs (plus some scientific data, and national
prestige).

Hypothesis 2: Spend 20 billion dollars marching around in circles,
resulting in no spinoffs or anything else.

To truncate the list of hypotheses at this point would be absurd. A
moment's thought suffices to generate a long list of hypotheses whereby a
comparable expenditure would have produced results at least as valuable as
Corel et cetera.

Fact: Resources were !diverted! to the Apollo project. These resources
would !not! otherwise have gone to waste.

The policy arena is not a contest to find worse and worse ways to spend
money; the idea is to find better and better ways. Attempting to justify
the Apollo project by saying it is better than 20 billion dollars worth of
marching around in circles is to damn it with faint praise.