Scare tactics?

[dykstrad@varney.idbsu.edu (Dewey Dykstra, Jr.)]

> Well, if the exponential function can be used to predict
> 900 years into the future, it should be possible to retrodict into
> the past.  If the population now is about 5.4 billion and it is
> doubling about every 40 years or so then 600 years ago, in the
> fourteenth century the population should have been less than
> 200,000.  But I have read that in the fourteenth century the great
> epidemic of black plague killed in Europe alone about 25,000,000
> people, making for a world population of 200,000 a truly dismal
> retrodiction from the exponetial function.  So, I would say that
> the exponetial function is quite limited in its applicability to
> human population growth, except as a scare tactic via the prestige
> of mathematical statements.
>
> James M. Espinosa


I just hope that I and my family and friends are not victims of a plague,
war or famine that knocks us off the exponential curve.  Van's comment on
how quickly we get back on track are sobering.

Or do we in fact live in a limitless system.....?

Dewey

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Dewey I. Dykstra, Jr.                   Phone: (208)385-3105
Professor of Physics                    Dept:  (208)385-3775
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Boise State University                  dykstrad@varney.idbsu.edu
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