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Extrapolating back linearly will yield a warmer Earth than can be accounted
for by solar heating. The aritmetic is easy, and I'll go through it for
those silent folk who did not do the exercise. The CO2 has risen by about
one seventh (14%) over the period in question, and the temperature has risen
by about 0.5 K. Thus a linear relationship of the sort James suggests should
produce a T_0 7*0.5 = 3.5 K lower than the initial temperature. The linear
relation yields a greenhouse effect of only 3.5 K, somewhat smaller than is
needed to keep us toasty at this distance from the Sun.The calculation of
just how large the greenhouse effect is is something I can't find right now.
It is considerably larger than that, but not ten times as large as I recall.
A number would be appreciated.