Re: [Phys-l] an all-too-predictable blackout

[Joseph Bellina <inquirybellina@comcast.net>]

John,
Two comments.
First if one is to design an experiment then you have to have some vision of what it is you want to find out.  Buried in there are predictions of resutls you think is important.  I'm not sure how you can avoid it.  Of course, the results may be surprising, Nobe Prizes are made of that, but you have to have some idea of where you are going before you go there.  So it is difficult to be open to all possible hypothesis,  It like filing all sorts of flight plans.
Second, however much you think scientists shouldn't take sides, history clearly points out that they do. Since qm is of interest, I suggest your read Quantum Dialogue by Mara Beller.  And who was it said that old theories don't die, their proponents do.

cheers,

joe

Joseph J. Bellina, Jr. Ph.D.
Retired Professor of Physics
Co-Director
Northern Indiana Science, Mathematics, and Engineering Collaborative
574-276-8294
inquirybellina@comcast.net




On Sep 8, 2011, at 11:05 PM, John Denker wrote:

> My opinion about predictions has changed since then.  I now realize
> that science should be more about scenarios and less about predictions.
> For what it's worth, by way of terminology, in my book a hypothesis 
> is not a prediction;  it is just a scenario, and the rule is to
> always consider *all* of the plausible hypotheses, i.e. *all* of 
> the plausible scenarios.  See e.g.:
>  http://www.av8n.com/physics/scientific-methods.htm
> especially:
>  http://www.av8n.com/physics/scientific-methods.htm#sec-hypothesis
> and then there is the infamous poster:
>  http://www.av8n.com/physics/scientific-methods.htm#sec-poster
>
> Whatever you call it, treating it as a prediction makes it sound 
> like taking sides.  IMHO scientists don't need to take sides, 
> and usually shouldn't take sides.  When I say we should consider 
> this-or-that scenario, it does not mean I want the scenario to 
> come to pass.  It may be that by carefully considering an 
> unpleasant scenario we can invent a way to make sure it doesn't 
> come to pass.