Re: [Phys-l] Global Warming

["John Clement" <clement@hal-pc.org>]

Unfortunately, authority may be the only thing we have with respect to
global warming.  I doubt that there are any on this list who have actually
done the level of research necessary to begin to have a research based
opinion on the subject.  It is sufficiently complicated that just reading a
few articles only touches the surface.

We do have a few facts at our fingertips such as the rise in the level of
CO_2 which is probably due to human activity.  We do know that human
activity can have worldwide consequences such as upper atmosphere ozone
depletion.  We do know that CO_2 is a greenhouse gas.  So at that point it
is probably that some warming is due to human influence.  The problem is
what is that percentage?  If it is only 10%, but we double the CO_2 load
will it go to 20%?  So human based global warming is certainly not far
fetched.

Now according to one physicist who spoke at a local meeting, the current
warming is consistent with overlapping cycles of warming/cooling and is at
its peak.  He happens to be an astronomer and not to my knowledge a
climatologist.  If so we should look for a cooling trend now and if it does
not happen, really hit the panic button.

The real problem is that if the global warming is mostly due to human
influence, then it needs to be addressed.  But if not, then whether we do
something about it is irrelevant.  The risk assessment is difficult.  So if
50% of climatologists project greater human based global warming does that
mean it is 50/50 likely to be due to human influence????  Is there a
concensus?

Currently the best estimates are that we are at the peak of oil production,
so from now on it is all downhill.  Considering that coal is much dirtier
and dangerous, we need to start switching over to a more long term non
carbon based solution for our power needs.  The global warming camp may
actually be doing us a favor (whether right or wrong) by stimulating demand
for more R&D of alternative energy sources.

In light of the fact that the current administration has done its best to
suppress evidence that it does not agree with, the current laissez faire
political situation is probably unwise.  I think they have even tried to
deny the existence of global warming!!!

John M. Clement
Houston, TX

> I know arguing from authority is frowned upon, but William Gray has taken
> a stand on the issue: the current trend, in his view, is due more to
> natural cycles, and the effect of human activity is minimal.  Just do a
> Google with his name and global warming.  He certainly qualifies as
> someone who's opinion should be considered given his experience with
> modeling ocean/atmosphere vis-a-vis hurricanes.
>
>                    Mike Monce
>                    Connecticut College