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Re: [Phys-L] void problem for 10 days - more landfill

On 5/4/2020 1:00 AM, bernard cleyet wrote:

Tiny Andorra has crushed their local epidemic:

My current residence doing much better than a previous:

bc …. filling the void
Forum for Physics Educators
bc reminds me here that sigmoid plots can serve well.
Sadly I find that forcing cumulative data into a tidy bell-shape curve or even a skew curve of the kind that the math lion of Georgetown helped me with, by differentiating its fitting function in order to describe its rate, can depart from ground-truth.

In this situation, I shrugged my shoulders and applied a best running 10-day linear fit to the aggregated data, and plotted these rates daily to form the OK & US Case and Death Daily Rates, using best fits to a four-term polynomial which obviously has little to no predictive value. One observation emerges that is interesting: a weekly cycle. ; OK Daily Case Rates to May 3 ; OK Daily Death Rates to May 3

(It is notable that the OK Governor asserted that he will reconsider his decision to stage a reopening if the Hospital Admissions data (a surrogate for CASE rate?) trend up
again, so I may be witnessing the death of good intentions) ; US Daily Case Rates to May 3 ; US Daily Death Rates to May 3

There is a voice of caution which says plotting rates
 in this way amounts to averaging of averages -
 a known defect of data modeling - but I try not to listen!

Brian W