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Here is a relevant fragment of my paper which will be
published in the proceedings of the Society of Philosophy of
Science (SPS) conference in Montreal (June 2012):
"3. Levels of Confidence in Scientific Claims: Data and Explanations.
A discovered experimental fact is usually presented to the
scientific community, to be independently confirmed or
refuted. Experimental results are accepted--at a high level
of confidence--when they become reproducible on demand.
Absence of such reproducibility justifies suspicion of
possible errors or fraud. Methods of validation of theories
(explanations of facts) are slightly different. A new
scientific theory is also presented to a community of
experts, to be independently evaluated. Their level of
confidence in a theory depends on the validity of underlying
assumptions and on the rigor of quantitative analysis. But
even a most reliable scientific theory, called a law, is said
to be falsifiable, in principle, when conflict with
reproducible-on-demand data becomes undeniable (15). Such
unusual conflict could trigger a scientific revolution (16).
To explain something usually means to identify causes and
to construct a logically satisfying model of reality. An
attempt to explain a fact, or to resolve an apparent logical
conflict, usually leads to discoveries of other facts. A
classical example was the discovery of planet Neptune, in
1846. A more recent and less widely known example was the
discovery of a subatomic particle named neutrino.
Experimental data collected in the 1920's showed that beta
rays (electrons emitted in radioactive decay) had lower mean
energies than expected on the basis of the theoretical E=mc2
formula. Austrian theoretical physicist W. Pauli solved this
"logical inconsistency" by suggesting that tiny neutral
particles, later named neutrinos, were responsible for the
missing energy. His hypothesis was formulated in 1933.
Experiments confirming the reality of neutrinos were
performed, 23 years later. "
Ludwik Kowalski
http://pages.csam.montclair.edu/~kowalski/life/intro.html
P.S. The title of the paper is "Philosophical and Social
Aspects of the Cold Fusion Controversy."
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