Re: [Phys-l] probability problem

[John Mallinckrodt <ajm@csupomona.edu>]

On Jun 28, 2010, at 5:31 PM, Ann Reagan wrote:

> Kudos to John for his analysis. I had a much-less elegant, low-tech  
> approach to the same result:

On the contrary!  Yours is the more "high tech" approach, what I  
referred to as the "sample space" approach, the approach taken also  
by Boas and by Carl in their solutions.  My spreadsheet (dealing out  
a million hands!) is the "brain dead" approach.  I used it because I  
was not quite convinced by the sample space arguments and I have  
noticed in the past (for instance, in trying to understand the Monty  
Hall problem the first time I saw it) that the simple process of  
programming a simulation often provides sufficient insight to make  
running it unnecessary.  Such was not the case here, but it did in  
any event corroborate the "sample space" solution (as, now quite  
obviously, it must!)

BTW, the Monty Hall problem is best understood by realizing that you  
have a one in three chance of having picked the right curtain  
initially and EVERY other time, the car ends up behind the one you  
can switch to!

John Mallinckrodt
Cal Poly Pomona