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Re: [Phys-l] climate vs weather; was "why and how"

William Robertson wrote:

The only problem is that it turns
out polar bear populations are increasing.

Bob LaMontagne wrote:

The World Wildlife Fund - WWF ( hardly a bastion of
conservatism - just conservationists ) stated the following in 2009:

"20-25,000 polar bears worldwide
Aproximately 19 distinct sub-populations (see above map) 60%
of these are in Canada Tracks have been reported as far north
as the pole Few scientists believe few bears travel beyond
82° north latitude. This is because the northern Arctic Ocean
has little food for them."

This is more in line with Bill's statement.

To be in line with Bill's statement, the quote would need to refer to d(pop)/dt rather that pop:

"The general population status of polar bears is currently stable, though there are pronounced differences
between the various populations. Some populations are stable, some seem to be increasing, and some are
decreasing due to various pressures. The status of some populations is not well documented."

Of course, this doesn't address how a decrease in sea ice will impact future population growth/decline. And it doesn't seem all that relevant to Bill's argument anyway:

You can show pictures of polar bears clinging to small ice
floes and it tugs at heartstrings.
<snip>
In the end, the polar
bear issue becomes exposed for what it is, which is a scare tactic.
That has the effect of reducing confidence in what people in the
scientific community are saying.

If the scientific community suggests that decreased ice will negatively impact future polar bear populations, and then someone (is it the scientific community?) uses a picture of a polar bear clinging to a piece of ice as a way of providing a sense of urgency to the general population, and then someone (is it the scientific community?) uses population data from a subset of polar bears to imply that current populations are increasing...

...with the effect of reducing confidence in what people in the scientific community are saying...

um...who is at fault here again?

----------------------------------------------------------
Robert A. Cohen, Department of Physics, East Stroudsburg University
570.422.3428 rcohen@po-box.esu.edu http://www.esu.edu/~bbq