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Re: [Phys-l] About the "why" and "how questins."



On 12/21/2010 12:24 PM, John Clement wrote:
... much of the "high entanglement" you refer to is, I believe, mostly
due to AGW. Scientists would not be in so deep in this entanglement if
they simply presented facts and let up on the propaganda (dire predictions
of catastrophe).

This would mean, I assume, going no further than showing people graphs of
temperature versus time and possibly CO2 concentrations versus time, but
certainly not in close conjunction lest we be accused of propaganda for
suggesting a link. Indeed, we should refuse to "speculate" about *any*
possible causes and let our perfectly capable and intelligent fellow
citizens figure out for themselves whether the trend *might* be related to
human population and energy use and, therefore, *might* be accelerating
exponentially, and what *might* happen with a several degree rise in
average temperature. After all, how many of us don't appreciate a nice
warm day? Of course, even the graphs might be a little beyond the pale
since they involve making judgments about proxies and all.

In any event am I correct in understanding that you would have us, under
*no* circumstances, predict catastrophe?

Not seeing snow is hardly catastrophic. Where I grew up in upstate NY we
had on average 14ft of snow a year, beating buffalo by 12ft. They also had
snow every month of the year except for August, then one year there was a
flurry in August. We also never had temperatures over the mid 70s, and in
the winter it could get down to 40 below. But now things have changed.
They used to have dog sled races, but they were cancelled due to lack of
reliable snow fall. Now it gets up to the 90s during the summer. We
vacationed there one summer and were dismayed to encounter Houston style
heat. So maybe the residents there do not consider it catastrophic that
global warming has reduced the snow fall.

But the residents of Newport, VA are having unprecedented ocean flooding as
the oceans rise. Lack of snow is one thing, but the demise of London and
Venice as the ocean rises is catastrophic. The possibility of runaway
heating is nothing to be ignored. Houston is safe for probably most of this
century, but Galveston and New Orleans will probably have to be abandoned
before the century is out. What social upheavals will happen if Bangladesh
is abandoned?

New England may consider the loss of many of the cold loving Maple trees a
disaster. Increases in hurricanes and their intensity is a disaster when
the weather patterns shift so as to steer them toward land.

The piddling disaster of no snow is not anything to get upset over, unless
you need snow pack to provide reliable summer water supplies. Some areas
depend on the mountain glaciers for water, but we now have an approximate
date for the demise of the snows of Kilimanjaro.

People do not want to believe in disaster scenarios, so of course they often
do not plan for them. Houston had red light cameras at the most dangerous
intersections in town. The result was a decrease in accidents at those
intersections. But the residents just voted to get rid of the cameras. Now
the city will be forced to pay for the cameras over the next few years while
not being able to use them. They have a long term contract for the cameras.
So residents are willing to risk their lives and property but they will not
pay for round the clock police officers at those intersections. Of course
this is not a disaster, but it illustrates how people tolerate higher risk
if the lower risk may inconvenience them by a traffic ticket that does not
go on their license. And why didn't the people who sponsored the vote do
something sensible like specifying the removal of the cameras when the
contract has expired? Now tax money will have to go to paying off a useless
contract which used to bring in revenue. You may certainly say that red
light cameras are a loss of your freedom, but the freedom you lose is the
right to do an illegal action with impunity. Of course you have no say in
whether stores or apartment houses can have security cameras. I admit this
is only a small risk and not a disaster, but it illustrates how people
think.

Could environmental poisons be shrinking the Americans' amygdalas?

John M. Clement
Houston, TX
I got an indignant note from a GW partisan saying that the managing editor of the FOX news
programs has issued a directive, that no mention is to be made of climate
change effects by FOX news presenters, unless mention is made immediately
that the science behind such warnings is suspect.

Brian W