Re: [Phys-l] Prof. Hal Lewis resigns from APS

[brian whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>]

 The most fundamental tool of weather forecasting (and stock arbitrage, 
for that matter) is this:
If it was raining yesterday, forecast rain. That provides better than 
chance correlation.

Brian W

On 10/12/2010 11:03 PM, LaMontagne, Bob wrote:
> I could walk out on my porch every morning and declare it was going to be a beautiful clear day. I would be right around 3 out of 4 times - but not 100%. I don't think that proves I have much insight into meteorology.
>
> Professional meteorologists, on the other hand, have a much better than chance ability to forecast - but still not 100%. I would not call what they do pseudoscience - I would characterize my forecasts as "not rising out of the noise" because even though they are accurate an amazing 75% of the time, they are no better than chance.
>
> I am suprised Ludwig has not chimed in on this. He has more insight into this than the rest of us because he has made a serious attempt to research this and probably has a good grasp of the current literature.
>
> Bob at PC