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Re: [Phys-l] Prof. Hal Lewis resigns from APS

The most fundamental tool of weather forecasting (and stock arbitrage, for that matter) is this:
If it was raining yesterday, forecast rain. That provides better than chance correlation.

Brian W

On 10/12/2010 11:03 PM, LaMontagne, Bob wrote:
I could walk out on my porch every morning and declare it was going to be a beautiful clear day. I would be right around 3 out of 4 times - but not 100%. I don't think that proves I have much insight into meteorology.

Professional meteorologists, on the other hand, have a much better than chance ability to forecast - but still not 100%. I would not call what they do pseudoscience - I would characterize my forecasts as "not rising out of the noise" because even though they are accurate an amazing 75% of the time, they are no better than chance.

I am suprised Ludwig has not chimed in on this. He has more insight into this than the rest of us because he has made a serious attempt to research this and probably has a good grasp of the current literature.

Bob at PC