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Re: [Phys-l] global temperatures



John Denker wrote:
> Twenty years ago, Hansen et al. used their model to make predictions.
> The model's 20-year prediction "accommodates" current data reasonably
> well.
> http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abstracts/2006/Hansen_etal_1.html

Good point and a good paper. And just to emphasize, climate models (and climatologists) don't make "predictions," they make "projections." That is, they assume a certain scenario for the future -- CO2 emissions, land use changes, etc. (For example, the IPCC Assessment Reports offers dozens of scenarios.) Obviously though, no assumption or scenario can be completely true, because the future emissions of CO2, land use, etc. are subject to many factors that differ from a mathematical simplification. Volcanoes go off at random times. Recessions happen. Some people switch to coal. So you can only look at these projections withing a certain uncertainty band. And the major point it, *all* scenarios lead to a dangerous future. I think it's true that no climate model has ever been constructed which _did not_ predict a warmer future.

David
--
David Appell
e: appell@nasw.org
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