Re: [Phys-l] Arctic sea ice 'faces rapid melt'

[Beaurega <beaurega@westol.com>]

> The average sea ice extent for the entire month of September this year was  
> 5.9 million sq km. Including 2006, the September rate of 
> sea ice decline is now approximately -8.59% per decade, or 60,421 sq km
per year.

5,900,000 km² * 8.59% /decade *  1 decade/10 years      =    50,681 sq km
per year

> At that rate, without the acceleration seen in the new modeling, the Arctic  
> Ocean would have no ice in September by the year 2060. 
2060-2007 = 53 years.

(5,900,000 km²)/(60,421 km²/year) = 97 years of ice.

(5,900,000 km²)/(50681 km²/year) = 116 years of ice.

(116 + 97)/2 = 106.5 years as an average.

Whew!  We have twice as long until the world ends 2114.

I don't get it either Bob at PC.
**********************

Paul

At 01:31 PM 4/14/07 EDT, you wrote:
> The average sea ice extent for the entire month of September this year was  
> 5.9 million sq km (2.3 million sq miles). Including 2006, the September
rate of 
> sea ice decline is now approximately -8.59% per decade, or 60,421 sq km 
> (23,328  sq miles) per year.  
> At that rate, without the acceleration seen in the new modeling, the Arctic  
> Ocean would have no ice in September by the year 2060.  
> ****************************** 
> Note the number above assumes a linear model  But that's not the way  
> positive feedback systems work. According to some modelers the ice melt
could be  
> complete within 20 years with dire effects expected long before then. See
links.  
> *********** 
> _http://www.theweathermakers.com/_ (http://www.theweathermakers.com/)  
> _http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6171053.stm_ 
> (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6171053.stm)