Re: [Phys-l] Global Warming

[Brian Whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>]

Hmmm... here is what I make of your response, Bob.

You wrote: " The word Gray used is "minimal".

The context in which Gray wrote this word was
"...the effect of human activity is minimal."
I supposed that his "minimal" might be adequately represented
by my    "...less than 5% of the warming effect."

But perhaps not?     You apparently associated a value of 45%
(of the trend in global warming ) to the "minimal" effect of human activity
(less than 5% of the warming effect in my interpretation)
.
This does indeed seem a very perverse parsing!        :-)

But I expect there is a quite straight-forward explanation for
your conclusion. I wonder what it can be?  I would certainly like
to hear more about your forays into pseudo-science.

Brian Whatcott


At 03:11 PM 6/12/2006, you wrote:
> The word Gray used is "minimal". Attributing a value of 45% to that is a
> very perverse parsing. I use examples such as this in my course on
> pseudoscience - it's called "argument by exegesis".
>
> Bob at PC
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: phys-l-bounces@carnot.physics.buffalo.edu [mailto:phys-l-
> > bounces@carnot.physics.buffalo.edu] On Behalf Of Brian Whatcott
> > Sent: Monday, June 12, 2006 1:21 PM
> > To: Forum for Physics Educators
> > Subject: Re: [Phys-l] Global Warming
> >
> > Mike Monce,
> >
> > Parsing only the sentiment you attribute to William Gray,
> > that  "the current trend, in his view, is due more to natural cycles,
> > and the effect of human activity is minimal":
> >
> > Let us suppose that "due more to natural cycles" can mean at least
> > 51% of the warming effect is due to a natural thermal cycle.
> > Let us also suppose that "the effect of human activity is minimal"
> > can mean that human activities contribute less than 5% of the
> > warming effect.
> >
> > One might thereby deduce that
> >   The current heating cycle has a contribution of up to 45% from
> > non-human, and non-natural sources., according to William Gray,
> > a noted authority on modeling climate.
> >
> > Brian Whatcott
> >
> >
> > At 07:27 AM 6/12/2006, you wrote:
> > >I know arguing from authority is frowned upon, but William Gray
> > >  has taken a stand on the issue: the current trend, in his view,
> > >is due more to natural cycles, and the effect of human activity is
> > minimal.
> > >Just do a Google with his name and global warming.
> > >  He certainly qualifies as someone who's opinion should be considered
> > >  given his experience with modeling ocean/atmosphere vis-a-vis
> > hurricanes.
> > >
> > >                    Mike Monce
> > >                    Connecticut College


Brian Whatcott    Altus OK    Eureka!