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[Physltest] [Phys-L] Re: Are the Forces of Darkness on the March?



Hi:

As I told you before. Statistics are workign well in my country (Mexico).
This article cited by Mr. B. Cleyet give us an example with our President
Fox in 2000, but I could tell you about several elections in our states
where exit polls are very precise.

Thanks


Arnulfo Castellanos-Moreno



----- Original Message -----
From: "Bernard Cleyet" <anngeorg@PACBELL.NET>
To: <PHYS-L@LISTS.NAU.EDU>
Sent: Friday, November 12, 2004 11:52 PM
Subject: Re: Are the Forces of Darkness on the March?


more on exit polls and their accuracy: [the fourth paragraph begins the
relevant.]

http://prorev.com/2004/11/watching-count-blame-it-on-blogs.htm

This link is good now (2245 PST), and unlikely to last beyond Sunday.

bc

Michael Edmiston wrote:

David Marx said, "I like Dick Morris very much. What he was saying is
that foul play was going on in the early exit polls to make it look like
Kerry was going to win, which might make some Republicans stay home.
Again, I ask why we should believe the exit polls over the actual
results?"

(1) If the exit polls were rigged to make it look like Kerry were
winning, which side rigged them? Isn't it just as easy to believe that
a possibility of a Kerry win would draw out the Bush supporters to make
sure that Bush carried their state? Why is it assumed a projected Kerry
win would keep the Bush supporters home? If I were a Kerry supporter
and it looked like Kerry would win without me, that might prompt me to
stay home. On the other hand, if I were a Bush supporter this might
prompt me to vote and take my neighbor with me.

(2) Dick Morris explained that properly-conducted exit polls are used to
help verify there was or was not voting fraud. If the exit polls and
the actual results disagree, then one of them is wrong. Which one is
wrong?

Michael D. Edmiston, Ph.D.
Professor of Physics and Chemistry
Bluffton University
Bluffton, OH 45817
(419)-358-3270
edmiston@bluffton.edu




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