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If I place a sewing needle on a piece of tissue paper and
float it on clean water, the paper waterlogs and sinks,
and the needle floats.
If I examine the surface of the water I see that it is
depressed under the needle. The depression curves up
smoothly to the surface.
Though the water surface layer is supportive, I wonder if the total
depression displaces as much water weight as the needle weighs?
No, it has to occur before there is that much water displaced.
When the surface is stretched, its PE increases, at an increasing rate
(w.r.t. displacement), going until it reaches a maximum level - at which
point it breaks. Let's assume we don't get there - otherwise we don't have
a problem to consider.
As the needle settles onto the water, its PE decreases, but that of the
displaced water increases, at an increasing rate (displaced water is moving
over a greater vertical distance). The net effect is one of decrease, at a
decreasing rate.
When the two rates match (so add to zero), we have a local equilibrium and
that is where the needle floats.
Suppose though that the combined grav PE fell more rapidly than the PE of
the surface rose, even up to the point where the needle was entirely below
the water "level". Suppose further that the surface does not close in on
itself - like dropping a cannonball onto a loose sheet of polythene - that
is trivial, it's going to sink!.