We finished "coming out of the ice age" thousands of years ago. Actually,
we've been enjoying a very nice "interglacial" period and we're due to go
back *into* another glaciation, if the pattern of the last four ice ages
holds. Global warming may delay it. There's always a silver lining to every
cloud!
The consensus of the scientific community who are experts in the global
warming field is that yes, global warming is occurring, and yes, it is being
driven by human activity. Because the increase in mean temperature is small
compared to short-term fluctuations, it has been difficult to extract the
"signal" from the "noise." This difficulty is one reason for the ongoing
scientific debate. As with most scientific controversies (evolution being
another example), the scientific debate isn't about the existence of the
phenomenon, but about the details. The vigor of such debates leads the
general public to overlook the major points of scientific agreement. What
scientists think of as caution and reservation until rigor is available, the
general public often interprets as total rejection. Much of science IS
"carved on stone tablets," but scientists think long and hard before
carving. Climate experts know well that "correlation is not causation" and
are working hard to nail down the extent to which all causes contribute to
global warming, whether natural or human. BTW, I'm a physicist, and although
there exist lots of physics tools to bring to bear on these investigations,
the global warming debate is truly interdisciplinary. One shouldn't expect
all physicists to be experts on this, any more than all biologists are
experts at identifying bugs.
Vickie
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Green [mailto:JMGreen@SISNA.COM]
Sent: Tuesday, August 13, 2002 6:44 PM
To: PHYS-L@lists.nau.edu
Subject: Re: nuclear power: abundant? and cheap?
We are coming out of one of the Earth's periodic glaciations. Of course
there is an increase in the average world temperature --- and that increase
will continue for a few more years ie centuries. This cycle has been going
on for billions of years -- in _my_ memory -- probably before that!
BUT is there any reliable evidence that the so called " greenhouse gasses"
have any appreciable effect on this warming. Yes, there is an increase in
CO2 and, yes, there is an increase in ave temp. Connection??? Physicists
are supposed to be better than what we hear here.
Jim Green mailto:JMGreen@sisna.com http://users.sisna.com/jmgreen
It is prohibited for anyone to disclose, copy, distribute the contents of
this message. Benedictine University does not review, edit or censor
E-Mail communications sent out through their System. The University
maintains and enforces polices regarding the acceptable use of its
technology resources. All messages express views solely of the sender,
which are not to be attributed to Benedictine University, and may not be
copied or distributed without this disclaimer.