Here is today's forecast from our university meteorologist. Unless
you're in the vicinity of DeKalb (which is about 70 miles west
of Chicago) the actual forecast won't be too useful; I'm sending
it because of the commentary, which I find to be quite informative.
Sue Willis
Suzanne Willis, Professor, Physics Department
Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL 60115 USA http://niuhep.physics.niu.edu/~willis/ swillis@niu.edu
phone: 815-753-0667 fax: 815-753-8565
From: Gilbert Sebenste <sebenste@weather.admin.niu.edu>
To: "Weekday Weather Forecast" <FORECAST-L@acs.acs.niu.edu>
Subject: Forecast, 3/23/00
Date: Thu, 23 Mar 2000 11:22:59 -0600 (CST)
FORECAST FOR DEKALB AND VICINITY, 3/23/00, 11:20 AM
Today...partly sunny. Mild with a high of 66 degrees. Southeast winds
10-15 MPH.
Tonight...becoming cloudy and mild. Low of 49 degrees. Southeast winds
10-15 MPH.
Tomorrow...cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing in the
afternoon. High of 61 degrees. Southeast winds 12-22 MPH.
Extended outlook...Saturday through Monday...
Saturday...mostly cloudy early with scattered showers ending. Low in the
upper 40s. High around 60.
Sunday...mostly sunny. Low in the upper 30s. High around 60.
Monday...increasing cloudiness. Low in the lower 40s. High in the lower
60s.
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CLIMATE DATA: Yesterday's high, 54 degrees; last night's low, 42 degrees.
Forecast was for 54/44. Normal high/low is 49/29. A trace of rainfall fell
in the last 24 hours; monthly total is .62"; yearly total is 4.21".
Snowfall remains at 34.0" for the season.
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HAZARDOUS/SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK: None expected the rest of this
week...and the chances are very low for next week as well.
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PRECIPITATION: Tomorrow afternoon-early Saturday morning's rainfall may
total .33"-.75", with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms.
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WHAT'S ON MY MIND: Forecast is generally going well as patches of dense
fog have dissipated, and the sun is peeking through as forecast. However,
there will be some changes to the forecast, notably to the highs today,
and the amount of rainfall tomorrow afternoon through early Saturday.
On the surface map this morning, High pressure over Detroit was keeping
things dry across the eastern 1/2 of the country. But clouds abound as low
level moisture is trapped and light winds are only slowly forcing the
moisture away.
A low pressure center over Amarillo, TX is producing heavy rains across
the Lone Star State and also across Oklahoma. Flood advisories were in
effect across Amarillo, with flood watches extending northeastward into
southern Kansas. Two tornadoes were reported just southeast of
Midland, TX yesterday afternoon.
A cold front extended from a low over western Saskatchewan southwestward
to Boise, ID to Elko, NV to San Francisco. This front was producing rain
showers and higher elevation snows form western Montana into central
Nevada. Most of these were light.
A weak trough of low pressure was bringing clouds and some precipitation
to Washington and Oregon. And, the southwestern U.S. was dry and cool.
Our forecast problems...the front to our west, the system to our
southwest and how they will interact as they both head our way.
Latest high-resolution visible satellite imagery shows clouds extending
southward to the southern end of the county before skies go clear. These
clouds are moving northeast at about 20 MPH. However...more clouds
are forming behind it in west-central Illinois and are heading northeast.
Latest thinking is that we will see some breaks in the clouds from time to
time all throughout the day. Winds have turned southeasterly and have
increased to the point where we will mix the moisture in the lower
3,000 feet of the atmosphere well enough to see some sunshine this
afternoon. This has obvious implications for temperatures; at 11 AM we
were already 60 degrees. So, highs will have to be bumped up this
afternoon.
I will call for mostly cloudy skies and highs in the middle 60s for this
afternoon...with southeast winds around 10-15 MPH.
For tonight...the system to our southwest moves northeastward, spreading
rain into Iowa and Missouri and clouds across our entire area. That, in
turn, will keep our temperatures up. I will go mostly cloudy this evening,
and then cloudy after midnight. Lows should hold into the upper 40s
as southeasterly winds keep the mild air coming in.
Tomorrow...the system to our southwest will push into eastern Iowa with
it's trailing cold front extending south along the Mississippi River by
dark. Plenty of low-level Gulf moisture and an upper level disturbance
moving right over us will mean that I will need to bump up the rainfall
amounts significantly. I will go with up to 3/4" on average areawide...
with local 1"+ amounts in heavier thunderstorms. The activity should
start by late afternoon.
Tomorrow night...we'll see periods of showers and thunderstorms, ending as
the cold front pulls through. Lows will be in the upper 40s.
Saturday and Sunday...the rain ends early Saturday, hopefully before
sunrise...setting us up for a nice weekend. Temperatures both days will be
around 60 degrees during the daytime, with nighttime lows dropping into
the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Monday...another system dives into Texas, bring with it more severe
weather for them. Some clouds from that system will overspread the area,
giving us partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Still, a nice late March
day with highs in the upper 50s.
Tuesday...the system in Texas moves east-northeastward, giving us a
glancing blow with rain. I am highly suspicious of this solution...as this
"cutoff" low is pushed too quickly eastward. European model moves it
eastward much more slowly...through the area by Wednesday morning. That
seems more likely...and will go with that. However, the main activity
should stay to our south. Temperatures should stay in the 50s for daytime
highs.
Wednesday-rest of the week...inbetween systems until next weekend.
Temperatures should rebound back into the lower 60s.
So, temperatures should remain above to much above normal through the end
of next week...with near normal precipitation through the period...most of
it coming tomorrow through early Saturday.