Nice Weather We're Having

["David T. Marx" <dtmarx@SIU.EDU>]

        I agree with Rick (see below).  In some parts of the US, the weather is
more predictable than in others.  I have lived in Southern Illinois for the past 9
years; and weather predictions for rain, thunderstorms, etc. are almost never
correct.  Here I'm referring to predictions for the same day, not five days in
advance.  I will give them credit for accurately predicting maximum and
minimum temperatures for the day, but nothing else.
        Local meteorologists often express their predictions in percentages,
"today's forecast - 40% chance of rain."  To me, this means that for the given
conditions, 4 out of 10 such days, it will rain. Does anyone know how they
really estimate the likelihood?
        I other parts of the country I've either lived in or visited, the weather
predictions seemed to be much more accurate than they are here.  My
thought has always been that the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers
near by, makes prediction extremely difficult.

> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Robert A Cohen" <bbq@ESU.EDU>
> > Ouch!  Just a minute there...Weather prediction has come a long way in the
> > past 100 years.  Most of modern meteorology is a science as far as I am
> > concerned.
> You must have better meteorologists in your area than here.  I watch the 5
> day forecasts published in the paper with some amusement.  Say I look at
> Friday's forecast on Monday.  By Thursday that forecast will have changed
> significantly at least twice and usually the Thursday forecast for Friday is
> still wrong.  It seems to be the case that long term forecasting has gotten
> better, but as far as I can tell, the short range forecasting is just as bad
> as it has been for the past 50 years. ;-(
>
> Rick
>
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