As Marilyn and the rest of us all know, it takes only 23 randomly
chosen people to have a greater than 50% chance that at least two
will have the same birthday. Yesterday Marilyn published a letter
from a reader who claimed that, for a group of 50 people, the
result becomes "virtually certain." She took the reader to task
for falling victim to a "persistent, erroneous extrapolation" of
the preceding fact.
So, here we go again. You can calculate the probability yourself.
What do you think of Marilyn's answer?
John
P.S. A lurking but reputable private communicator informs me that
Marilyn's "appallingly wrong" book on Fermat's last theorem is a
ready remedy for those of us with vos Savant veneration syndrome
(VSVS). Anybody read it?
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A. John Mallinckrodt http://www.intranet.csupomona.edu/~ajm
Professor of Physics mailto:ajmallinckro@csupomona.edu
Physics Department voice:909-869-4054
Cal Poly Pomona fax:909-869-5090
Pomona, CA 91768-4031 office:Building 8, Room 223