Re: [Phys-L] carbon wars

["Folkerts, Timothy J" <FolkertsT@bartonccc.edu>]

I really don't want to get into a "climate war" here.  I am quite convinced that CO2 is a cause of warming -- there is no way around the basic physics.  I spend a bit of time trying to convince people of this rather basic result.  

However, I DO want to address a few specific points.

FOREMOST, you completely ignored my main questions and skipped right to the sidebar.  So let me reiterate.
* What specific "utter catastrophe" do you foresee happening after the next 500 GT of carbon is burned (on the order of 50 years at current rates = ~ 1-2 K if my estimates and sources are accurate) that could kill the human race?  I truly am interested in your insights here. 

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Back to the sidebar issues ... 

"The models do not disagree with the data.  "
Here is a discussion from the people who actually collect & analyze the satellite temperature data:  http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures.  They conclude "... I do not expect that the hiatus and model/observation discrepancies are due to a single cause."  In other words, these experts recognize that there *IS* a discrepancy between the models and the data -- the data is lower than all 33 of the models they considered.  


> "HOWEVER ... if you go back 14 years, or 16 years, or 17
> years, or 30 years, or 100 years, or 1000 years, you see a dramatic 
> increase."
Since ~ 2001, there has been no statistically significant increase in temperature (using this satellite data: http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt; other sources should be similar).  This is clearly less than the "18 years" that some quote.  Periods longer than 13 years do all have statistically significant increases (p<0.05).  Still, ~ 13 years with no increase does require some thought. If this continues, there will be even more reason to question the model.  If the temperatures resume rising soon, then we will be back on track.

Furthermore, I can do some cherry-picking of the data.   The smallest slope from the 1998 El Nino to now is ~ 0.65 K/century (and again, this is statistically significant).  The largest slope immediately after this event was ~ 1.45  K/century (early 1999).   Going back to the beginning of the record (1978), the slope was ~ 1.4 K/century.   I might call 1.4 K/century "dramatic", but I would be hard pressed to call it "utterly catastrophic".