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The standard analysis of the Monty Hall problem makes clear that you are twice as likely to win the car if you DO switch, but that analysis ignores the significant possibility that Monty might only show you the goat and allow you the opportunity to switch if you have already chosen the curtain with the car behind it.
In this case, it seems to me that the probability of having two aces in case 3 is likely to be significantly lower than the standard analysis would suggest simply because it would seem odd for the observer to be more surprised by the appearance of the ace of spades than by the appearance of two aces--i.e., the simple fact that the observer said "Wow" would lead me to believe that it is *very* unlikely that I have two aces.