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Re: [Phys-l] global temperatures



In a message dated 3/16/2009 2:46:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
rtarara@saintmarys.edu writes:

I noticed nobody has answered Bob's question about global temps over the
last ten years. I'm sure he knows, but I actually didn't. So I Googled
'Global Temperature by year'. I would suggest two quick looks....

www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/01/06/br_r_r_w
here_did_global_warming_go/

This one gives a typical newspaper (and GW skeptic) account, but

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

is not from a skeptic and has an informative graph.

The bottom line is that the temp hasn't really changed in the past 10
years--it has been high, but that is the predominant trend that has been
clear for some time now. If anything the trend looks to be turning some
(but too little data to be sure). Now this flattening is during a time of a
4% CO-2 increase, but what is interesting to me is that the rate of increase
from 1975 to 2000 is about the same as it was between 1915 and 1940, when
the CO-2 concentrations weren't nearly what they were at the end of the 20th

Century.

These are, IMO, the types of data that should trigger some caution, at least
some healthy skepticism concerning the model predictions. Again, this is
just SO complicated. Is the leveling because of increased aerosols and
Global dimming -- or is the global air quality better than earlier which
makes a ten year leveling more mysterious? What about the other natural
drivers--the sun for example. What's it been doing during this ten year
period--has it cooled off enough to compensate for the greenhouse increases
or is it pumping in more energy such that we would have expected continuing
record setting temps (1998 is still the hottest--according to the graph and
the Boston Globe story). I would point to the last paragraph of the Globe
story! ;-)

Rick

***************************
Richard W. Tarara
Professor of Physics
Saint Mary's College
Notre Dame, IN
rtarara@saintmarys.edu
******************************

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This is from Real Climate. I am no expert on atmospheric physics so I
generally go with the consensus of climate scientists. However, the massive
loading of the atmosphere with carbon doesn't need a Sherlock Holmes to figure what
the effect would be in general. This physics is well understood in broad
terms. I would agree that the details of how this process works involves
complexity but let me remind you that this cuts both ways. See below.

Bob Zannelli

*******************************

Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.74°C (plus or minus
0.18°C) since the late-19th century, and the linear trend for the past 50 years of
0.13°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) per decade is nearly twice that for the past
100 years. The warming has not been globally uniform. Some areas (including
parts of the southeastern U.S. and parts of the North Atlantic) have, in fact,
cooled slightly over the last century. The recent warmth has been greatest
over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N. Lastly, seven of the eight
warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years
have all occurred since 1995.
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_http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#q3_
(http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#q3)




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