[Phys-L] Re: earthquakes +- critical thinking

[Brian Whatcott <betwys1@SBCGLOBAL.NET>]

At 09:18 AM 1/3/2006, Joel, you wrote:

[Brian]
> | David's argument is tantamount to stating that it is categorically
> |   impossible for some small stimulus often repeated to avoid or defuse
> | some very large effect,   This is so open to counter-example
> | that I will not
> | need to list such out of scale cause and effect scenarios.

[Joel]
> I don't understand the objections, I don't think David B. was saying
> that bunches of small effects can't be equivalent to one large effect.
> His objection, as I understood it, was merely being sceptical of the
> number of small effects that were said to be equivalent of the big
> effect in question.
>
> | (Big shot professors don't get to be big shot professors by
> | stating the obvious,
> |   far less by proposing the ridiculous, I take it?  :-)
> |
> |
>
> In my experience, one can go a far way towards appearing to be an expert
> by stating the obvious.  As the obvious often is so obvious to many
> people; and even to the one's for whom its obvious, it tends to validate
> their opinion which helps to inculcate the opinion that the speaker was
> an expert.
>
> Happy New Year everyone; the "oughts" are now more than half over.


It appears that Joel, and  (I suppose) the list in general imagines
  that a 'big-time' professor is reporting his earnest (but erroneous)
  considerations on the arithmetic of
1000 X Z^4.5 = 1 X Z^12 or some such.

Please give a reasonable science spokesman the benefit of advocating
  a way of reducing the occurrence of  major earthquakes by
promoting small earthquakes.
I
After all, if we assembled here can work an equation
  in exponentials, I expect he can too. Wouldn't you think?

Or perhaps he should have uttered the magic phrase (which seems
  to have caught fire of late): Tipping Point.
   How about this:
  "there is a tipping point in the affairs of subduction - taken
  at the first latch, a stimulus leads
to relaxation, or one is left in a shallows of hopeless expectation
  of the big release, ever more!

     :-)
With apologies to Bill.


Brian Whatcott    Altus OK    Eureka!
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