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*From*: brian whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>*Date*: Fri, 5 Jun 2020 13:58:40 -0500

On 6/4/2020 11:02 PM, David Bowman wrote:

In my previous post when I said I found it "remarkable about the statistics of this pandemic is the unreasonable effectiveness of the cumulative *log-normal* family of model distributions in fitting the cumulative death data for the US & some other countries " I should have qualified the remark with the words "so far" since I expect the heretofore "unreasonable effectiveness" of a log-normal model to become quite *in*effective once the consequences of the recent nationwide surge in the lack of social distancing shows up in the composite death data.Somewhat tongue in cheek, I answered the Question "When does the Pandemic End?" with this - which is slightly relevant:

Dave Bowman

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https://www.quora.com/When-will-the-COVID-19-virus-end/answer/Brian-Alan-Whatcott

Brian W

**References**:**[Phys-L] tutorial on exponential mixtures***From:*John Denker <jsd@av8n.com>

**Re: [Phys-L] tutorial on exponential mixtures***From:*John Denker <jsd@av8n.com>

**Re: [Phys-L] tutorial on exponential mixtures***From:*bernard cleyet <bernard@cleyet.org>

**Re: [Phys-L] tutorial on exponential mixtures***From:*David Bowman <David_Bowman@georgetowncollege.edu>

**Re: [Phys-L] tutorial on exponential mixtures***From:*David Bowman <David_Bowman@georgetowncollege.edu>

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