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Re: [Phys-L] Confessions of a Repentant Modeler in a Time of Plague.

On 2020/Apr/19, at 16:03, John Denker via Phys-l <> wrote:

A good starting place
is to assume that R₀ is piecewise constant, punctuated
by changes in public policy.

I’ve thought of relating the changes in improvement in policy w/ changes in the doubling time, or more easily seen as the slope of the cumulative cases in a log plot. I suppose it should be ~ five days after the effective implementation. Using this I’ll look at some of my plots; for deaths more likely fifteen days?

In searching for Re. Rho effective I found these: and

As an example of how sensitive the simplest model from cases, I’ll put in The last week of published data were corrected upwards from a mean 2.4 daily cases to 6.1. This moved the peak forward two weeks.

bc. of necessity, simple minded.

p.s. The sigmoid formula I use is the intermediate in the number of coefficients offered by KaleidaGraph.