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*From*: brian whatcott <betwys1@sbcglobal.net>*Date*: Fri, 21 Feb 2020 07:50:59 -0600

A thought for the folks who are exercised by the risk of exposure from the tail of the distribution of people infected with Covid-19:

you HAVE gone out of your way to get a flu shot, I expect?

Good! The lethal infection risk is SO much higher!

Brian W

*****************************************

On 2/21/2020 12:22 AM, bernard cleyet wrote:

Phys-l-ers and Bcc!

I read that 5% of exposed would become symptomatic after 14 days quarantine, the usual period. Lost reference!

Wow! Not good. So I did some searching:

First I found this:

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/538

Tho. the authors suggest a 14 day quarantine is sufficient, I used their data for the two normal distrib. coefficients and found an approximately 0.0013 prob. of exceeding 14 days. With ~ 75k diseased this gives ~ 98 people who shoulda been quarantined longer. However there are many factors that modify this number, for example: many will be detected during their incubation some time after they were infected.

Note: N = rather small, and they give a rather large SD for the coefficients.

After consuming two hours searching and writing I found this :

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/generalinfectiousdisease/84963

bc … shoulda searched backwards! And is not a statistician

p.s. there is a v. large number of articles on covid-19. And with a Rho [zero] >= 4.7, [Ref. 5 of R0 below] one may calculate the expected infection rate due to the ~ 98, which is beyond my ability.

Data, calculator, explanation, etc. :

R0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

note: references 4, 5, and 6.

Normal distrib. calculator https://www.mathportal.org/calculators/statistics-calculator/normal-distribution-calculator.php ( I’m lazy and pray I used it correctly.)

Number of cases https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf

Risk for transportation of covid-19

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Zhanwei_Du/publication/338927327_Risk_for_Transportation_of_2019_Novel_Coronavirus_COVID-19_from_Wuhan_to_Cities_in_China/links/5e4487ea92851c7f7f340ace/Risk-for-Transportation-of-2019-Novel-Coronavirus-COVID-19-from-Wuhan-to-Cities-in-China.pdf

Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253v2.full.pdf

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**References**:**[Phys-L] Some stats. on covid-19***From:*bernard cleyet <bernard@cleyet.org>

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