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Re: [Phys-L] Some stats. on covid-19

A thought for the folks who are exercised by the risk of exposure from the tail of the distribution of people infected with Covid-19:

you HAVE gone out of your way to get a flu shot, I expect?

Good!   The lethal infection  risk is SO much higher!

Brian W

On 2/21/2020 12:22 AM, bernard cleyet wrote:
Phys-l-ers and Bcc!

I read that 5% of exposed would become symptomatic after 14 days quarantine, the usual period. Lost reference!

Wow! Not good. So I did some searching:

First I found this:

Tho. the authors suggest a 14 day quarantine is sufficient, I used their data for the two normal distrib. coefficients and found an approximately 0.0013 prob. of exceeding 14 days. With ~ 75k diseased this gives ~ 98 people who shoulda been quarantined longer. However there are many factors that modify this number, for example: many will be detected during their incubation some time after they were infected.

Note: N = rather small, and they give a rather large SD for the coefficients.

After consuming two hours searching and writing I found this :

bc … shoulda searched backwards! And is not a statistician

p.s. there is a v. large number of articles on covid-19. And with a Rho [zero] >= 4.7, [Ref. 5 of R0 below] one may calculate the expected infection rate due to the ~ 98, which is beyond my ability.

Data, calculator, explanation, etc. :


note: references 4, 5, and 6.

Normal distrib. calculator ( I’m lazy and pray I used it correctly.)

Number of cases

Risk for transportation of covid-19
Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China :

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