Re: [Phys-L] Some stats. on covid-19

[bernard cleyet <bernard@cleyet.org>]

Third try!  

> On 2020/Feb/20, at 22:26, bernard cleyet <bernard@cleyet.org> wrote:
>
>
>
> I read that 5% of exposed would become symptomatic after 14 days quarantine, the usual period.  Lost reference!  
>
> Wow!  Not good.  So I did some searching:  
>
> First I found this:   
>
> https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/538 <https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/538>   
>
> Tho. the authors suggest a14 day quarantine is sufficient, I used their data for the two normal distrib. coefficients and found an approximately 0.0013 prob. of exceeding 14 days.  With ~ 75k diseased this give ~ 98 people who shoulda been quarantined longer.  However there are many factors that modify this number, for example:  many will be detected during their incubation some time after they were infected.  
>
> Note:  N = rather small, and they give a rather large SD for the coefficients.  
>
> After consuming two hours searching and writing I found this :  
>
>
> https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/generalinfectiousdisease/84963 <https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/generalinfectiousdisease/84963>  
>
>
> bc …  shoulda searched backwards!  And is not a statistician
>
>
> p.s. there is a v. large number of articles on covid-19.  And with A Rho naught >/= 4.7, [Ref. 5 of R0 below] one may calculate the expected infection rate due to the ~ 98, which is beyond my ability.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Data, calculator, explanation, etc. :  
>
> R0:   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number>  
>
> note: references 4, 5, and 6.
>
>
> Normal distrib. calculator  https://www.mathportal.org/calculators/statistics-calculator/normal-distribution-calculator.php <https://www.mathportal.org/calculators/statistics-calculator/normal-distribution-calculator.php> ( I’m lazy and pray I used it correctly.)
>
> Number of cases   https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf <https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf>  
>
> Risk for transportation    of covid-19  
>
>    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Zhanwei_Du/publication/338927327_Risk_for_Transportation_of_2019_Novel_Coronavirus_COVID-19_from_Wuhan_to_Cities_in_China/links/5e4487ea92851c7f7f340ace/Risk-for-Transportation-of-2019-Novel-Coronavirus-COVID-19-from-Wuhan-to-Cities-in-China.pdf <https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Zhanwei_Du/publication/338927327_Risk_for_Transportation_of_2019_Novel_Coronavirus_COVID-19_from_Wuhan_to_Cities_in_China/links/5e4487ea92851c7f7f340ace/Risk-for-Transportation-of-2019-Novel-Coronavirus-COVID-19-from-Wuhan-to-Cities-in-China.pdf>  
> Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China :   https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253v2.full.pdf <https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253v2.full.pdf>