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On 2020/Feb/20, at 22:26, bernard cleyet <firstname.lastname@example.org> wrote:
I read that 5% of exposed would become symptomatic after 14 days quarantine, the usual period. Lost reference!
Wow! Not good. So I did some searching:
First I found this:
Tho. the authors suggest a14 day quarantine is sufficient, I used their data for the two normal distrib. coefficients and found an approximately 0.0013 prob. of exceeding 14 days. With ~ 75k diseased this give ~ 98 people who shoulda been quarantined longer. However there are many factors that modify this number, for example: many will be detected during their incubation some time after they were infected.
Note: N = rather small, and they give a rather large SD for the coefficients.
After consuming two hours searching and writing I found this :
bc … shoulda searched backwards! And is not a statistician
p.s. there is a v. large number of articles on covid-19. And with A Rho naught >/= 4.7, [Ref. 5 of R0 below] one may calculate the expected infection rate due to the ~ 98, which is beyond my ability.
Data, calculator, explanation, etc. :
R0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number>
note: references 4, 5, and 6.
Normal distrib. calculator https://www.mathportal.org/calculators/statistics-calculator/normal-distribution-calculator.php <https://www.mathportal.org/calculators/statistics-calculator/normal-distribution-calculator.php> ( I’m lazy and pray I used it correctly.)
Number of cases https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf <https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf>
Risk for transportation of covid-19
Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253v2.full.pdf <https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.20021253v2.full.pdf>