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Re: [Phys-L] Some stats. on covid-19

Third try!

On 2020/Feb/20, at 22:26, bernard cleyet <> wrote:

I read that 5% of exposed would become symptomatic after 14 days quarantine, the usual period. Lost reference!

Wow! Not good. So I did some searching:

First I found this: <>

Tho. the authors suggest a14 day quarantine is sufficient, I used their data for the two normal distrib. coefficients and found an approximately 0.0013 prob. of exceeding 14 days. With ~ 75k diseased this give ~ 98 people who shoulda been quarantined longer. However there are many factors that modify this number, for example: many will be detected during their incubation some time after they were infected.

Note: N = rather small, and they give a rather large SD for the coefficients.

After consuming two hours searching and writing I found this : <>

bc … shoulda searched backwards! And is not a statistician

p.s. there is a v. large number of articles on covid-19. And with A Rho naught >/= 4.7, [Ref. 5 of R0 below] one may calculate the expected infection rate due to the ~ 98, which is beyond my ability.

Data, calculator, explanation, etc. :

R0: <>

note: references 4, 5, and 6.

Normal distrib. calculator <> ( I’m lazy and pray I used it correctly.)

Number of cases <>

Risk for transportation of covid-19 <>
Estimation of the Time-Varying Reproduction Number of COVID-19 Outbreak in China : <>