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Re: [Phys-L] The Regression working paper ref: Re: regression analysis

The Effects of Large Group Meetings on the Spread of COVID-19: The Case of Trump Rallies by B. Douglas Bernheim, Nina Buchmann, Zach Freitas-Groff, Sebastián Otero :: SSRN

Though it is all but certain that close-spaced largely maskless groups provoked excess infections in the counties in which they occurred compared with other counties with similar infection rate growth, I am not certain that this study is particularly convincing.I noticed a couple of circumstantial & procedural peculiarities.1) Publication timing: when one observes FBI public announcements affecting public cerebration of political issues in the immediate pre election period in 2016 & 2020 one questions motivation. In the same way, one notes that this study published in the pre-2020 election period.2) Placebo data  of a time-displaced nature led to data that sometimes showed NEGATIVE correlations with infection events and disease.Results of this kind were arbitrarily set to zero when aggregating data.3) Above all, I asked the question: Can I replicate this Regression?    The data source was clear at Johns-Hopkins      The locations of the counties to be included & excluded were clear.       But with a cavalier nod at the dangers of over-fitting data, we are left only with the impression that the parameters were selected based on what worked!
It would be  more interesting to see a study of the kind that can diagnose illness using neural network methods, by clustering analysis.Brian W                                  
On Saturday, November 7, 2020, 06:18:53 AM CST, bernard cleyet <> wrote:

Thanks to Professor Ann Watkins, stats. maven at Cal. State U. @ Northridge. 

On 2020/Nov/02, at 13:29, Watkins, Ann E <> wrote:

bc …  didn’t open the link in original post to the working paper.
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