Re: [Phys-L] lottery fundamentals

[John Denker <jsd@av8n.com>]

On 02/26/2014 01:24 PM, Anthony Lapinski wrote:
> In theory, could you ever pick all the combinations in a lottery, pay for
> the tickets, and win money?

No, for at least two reasons.

First of all, suppose you were the only player, or the only
really big player.  If you did that the best you could hope 
for is to win all the money in the pot, but that's less than 
you paid, because the house takes its cut before the money
goes into the pot.

Secondly, suppose you weren't the only big player.  Then
you would have to /share/ the prize.

Perhaps more importantly, use your physics intuition:  Use
the /conservation/ idea.  You're playing a less-than-zero-sum
game.  Ticket-holders collectively cannot get out more than
they put in *and* your share of the pot is, on average, 
proportional to the share of the tickets you bought.

This demonstrates an important idea:  gambling is infamous 
for being in a different category from ordinary commerce.
Ordinary commerce creates value.  It is a positive-sum
game.