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World rate is at 2.42 according to
http://www.google.com/#bav=on.2,or.r_qf.&fp=825901178ec5a4e2&q=world+fertility+rates
IMO, the real question is a two parter
a) what is the carrying capacity of the earth at a standard of living that
we would like to have?
I suspect that it is significantly less than the current 7 odd billion we
currently have. I also suspect that the long term carrying capacity is
less than 7 billion. If correct, achieving either carrying capacity will
require NPG i.e. world fertility rates less than 2.1
I'd prefer to get there with forethought and with as minimal disruption to
the economy as possible. I suspect this means using our remaining "one
shot" supply of fossil fuels to achieve the transition.
Estimates of the carrying capacity are all over the map and depend a lot
on the value of your desired endpoint standard of living.
b) Is perhaps a politically simpler question: What standard of living
corresponds to the largest value for the carrying capacity? I imagine, but
can not prove that this is a number I personally wouldn't be too happy to
experience
________________________________________
From: Phys-l [phys-l-bounces@phys-l.org] on behalf of Bruce Sherwood [
Bruce_Sherwood@ncsu.edu]
Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2013 11:24 AM
To: Phys-L@Phys-L.org
Subject: Re: [Phys-L] CU-Boulder Plots To Extend Life of Al Bartlett's
Famous Lecture on Arithmetic, Population, and Energy
On population growth, the glass is half-full and half-empty. Searches for
"world fertility rates" turn up various summaries, and here's one that
lists the rates in declining order from Niger (7.03) to Singapore (0.79):
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2127rank.html
The rates given are this: "This entry gives a figure for the average number
of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of
their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility
rate at each age. The total fertility rate (TFR) is a more direct measure
of the level of fertility than the crude birth rate, since it refers to
births per woman."
The good news is that of the 224 countries listed, in half of them the rate
is less than 2.1, the approximate "replacement" number. The bad news is of
course the other half, many but not all in Africa. The good news is that in
the low-fertility half there are lots of surprising names -- take a look.
Bruce
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