Re: [Phys-L] Inference Lab Design

[John Mallinckrodt <ajm@csupomona.edu>]

John Denker wrote:

> In the game in question, there is a reward for answering quickly, but you
> must not answer too quickly!  You need to give the other players time to
> make their first-stage inferences ... but then you need to make your second-
> stage inference quicker than they do.  So this requires psychology as well
> as logic:  you need to appraise the capabilities of the other players.

Perhaps, but I'd say that it involves psychology in an almost trivial if still interesting way, which is why I think this *would* be a good example to use even in the first week of class.  

Consider: These are supposedly "logicians" so it's almost impossible to imagine any of them not instantaneously making the first stage inference--i.e., recognizing the implication of seeing one black hat, one white hat, and two raised hands.  Thus, the moment one of them makes the second stage inference (assuming only perhaps that it wasn't worked it out in advance), there is no need for further delay.

John Mallinckrodt
Cal Poly Pomona