[Phys-l] Mauder minimum

["John Clement" <clement@hal-pc.org>]

Some web sites have been predicting a new Mauder minimum in sunspot
activity.  But from looking at the data in the Wikipedia and the current
prediction for the next maximum, this would seem to be a typical hysterical
piece of nonsense.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

The current solar cycle does have a lower maximum than the previous one, but
looking at the Wikpedia graphs this sort of relative minimum has happened
before without any drastic Mauder minimum.  I really don't think they have a
good enough model to be able to predict long term trends.

The Mauder minimum would seem to be an important factor in the little ice
age, so of course the types of people prone to conspiracy theory would
predict this type of thing.  But such a minimum might give us temporary
breathing space for dealing with global warming.

Is there anyone on this list who has a good handle on long term sunspot
predictions?

John M. Clement
Houston, TX