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Correct me if I'm wrong but I want to understand your point:
The standard analysis of the Monty Hall problem makes clear that you
are twice as likely to win the car if you DO switch, but that
analysis ignores the significant possibility that Monty might only
show you the goat and allow you the opportunity to switch if you have
already chosen the curtain with the car behind it.
You're saying that in "real life" Monty might have unstated motivations, no?
In this case, it seems to me that the probability of having two aces
in case 3 is likely to be significantly lower than the standard
analysis would suggest simply because it would seem odd for the
observer to be more surprised by the appearance of the ace of spades
than by the appearance of two aces--i.e., the simple fact that the
observer said "Wow" would lead me to believe that it is *very*
unlikely that I have two aces.
Likewise the dealer in saying "wow"?
I take it your point is that neither issue changes the problems, as
stated, but that in "real life" there may be other considerations to
think about?